서울 아파트 청약경쟁률 결정요인 비교분석 - 문재인 정부와 박근혜 정부 규제 정책 중심으로

Abstract

This study looked at what factors determine the competition rate for apartment subscriptions by dividing the period into the Moon Jae-in government and the Park Geun-hye government. Logistic regression analysis was conducted by setting purchasing capacity, loan repayment ability, purchase tax, price outlook, selling price, unsold lease, lease rate, government dummy as independent variables and subscription competition rate as subordinate variables. A full-term model, including a dummy of government, and a separate model divided by the current and former government periods were formed to determine if there were any differences in the factors determining the subscription competition rate depending on the period. Dummy variables by the government were significant at 99% confidence levels, showing significant differences in subscription competition rates depending on the government. Depending on the timing of the apartment sale, the factors behind the subscription decision also differed. In the previous Park Geun-hye government, 6 out of 10 variables were significant at the 99% confidence level, including home purchasing capacity, loan repayment ability, purchase tax, sale price, transaction volume and lump-sum housing lease price. This can be interpreted as the principle of self-adjustment in the market played a role as the government minimizes market intervention. On the other hand, it was analyzed that only 2 of the 10 independent variables and the purchasing power index were noted during the Moon Jae-in government period, when the ceiling on the sale of private apartments, the subscription price point system, and the priority supply for the homeless were implemented. If the lump-sum housing lease price rises, the probability of a higher competition rate for subscription has increased, while on the contrary, it has been confirmed that the competition rate for subscription has increased due to a lower purchasing power