Development of a PCA-Based Vulnerability and Copula-Based Hazard Analysis for Assessing Regional Drought Risk

Abstract

Vulnerability and hazard are terms that are generally applied to drought risk assessment. Vulnerability can be defined as the capacity of a region to cope with and resist the impacts of natural hazards, while hazard can be defined as the likelihood of a natural or human-induced physical event. In this study, principal component analysis (PCA) was used to generate an aggregate drought vulnerability index (DVI) using multiple socio-economic indicators and copula-based drought frequency analysis was performed to calculate a drought hazard index (DHI) considering meteorological drought occurrence patterns. Finally, regional drought risk was evaluated by combining the DVI and DHI among cities within the Chungcheong province, South Korea. Based on the drought risk index (DRI), Jecheon-si (DRI = 0.50) and Gongju-si (DRI = 0.65) were identified as the most hazardous cities in Chungcheongbuk-do and Chungcheongnam-do, respectively. The overall process of drought risk assessment developed in this study is useful for planning drought management and mitigation at the local level.