Link prediction in the Granger causality network of the global currency market
- Title
- Link prediction in the Granger causality network of the global currency market
- Author
- 송재욱
- Keywords
- Currency market; Link prediction; Granger causality network; Real effective exchange rate
- Issue Date
- 2020-09
- Publisher
- ELSEVIER
- Citation
- PHYSICA A-STATISTICAL MECHANICS AND ITS APPLICATIONS, v. 553, article no. 124668
- Abstract
- In this study, we analyze the topology of the global currency market using the Granger causality network and attempt to predict its links by utilizing the real effective exchange rate of 61 countries. In this context, we suggest two new link prediction methods using the eta squared as a weight of link. For the network analysis, we focus on the changes in cross-sectional topology and time-varying properties of the causality network during the sub-prime mortgage crisis, the European debt crisis, and the Chinese stock market turbulence. For the link prediction, we evaluate the prediction performance of the proposed method and those of other benchmarks. Based on the results, we observe significant increments in out-degrees and in-degrees of the originating continents of the global financial crisis. Also, we confirm the best prediction accuracy of the weighted causality method based on the statistical significance of higher area under curve in every aspect. (C) 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
- URI
- https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378437120303265?via%3Dihubhttps://repository.hanyang.ac.kr/handle/20.500.11754/170886
- ISSN
- 0378-4371; 1873-2119
- DOI
- 10.1016/j.physa.2020.124668
- Appears in Collections:
- COLLEGE OF ENGINEERING[S](공과대학) > INDUSTRIAL ENGINEERING(산업공학과) > Articles
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