A Non-Stationary Framework for Investigating the Influence of Climate Change and Human Activities on Drought Propagation

Abstract

Climate change and anthropogenic activities are the two key forces that alter the phenomena of the hydrological cycle which consequently influence the propagation characteristics of meteorological drought to hydrological drought. One of the fundamental presumptions in the statistical analysis of hydrometeorological variables is stationary, which has been widely questioned in the context of global warming and intensive maninduced disturbances. Therefore, it is necessary to develop a framework based on non-stationarity for quantifying the impact of climate change and man-made activities on drought propagation under varying environmental conditions. The proposed methodology was employed and verified in a highly human-modified region.