Changes in extreme rainfall and its implications for design rainfall using a Bayesian quantile regression approach
- Title
- Changes in extreme rainfall and its implications for design rainfall using a Bayesian quantile regression approach
- Author
- 김태웅
- Keywords
- Bayesian quantile regression; design rainfall; distribution; extreme rainfall; nonstationarity; uncertainty
- Issue Date
- 2020-05
- Publisher
- IWA PUBLISHING
- Citation
- HYDROLOGY RESEARCH, v. 51, no. 4, page. 699-719
- Abstract
- This study aims to explore possible distributional changes in annual daily maximum rainfalls (ADMRs) over South Korea using a Bayesian multiple non-crossing quantile regression model. The distributional changes in the ADMRs are grouped into nine categories, focusing on changes in the location and scale parameters of the probability distribution. We identified seven categories for a distributional change in the selected stations. Most of the stations (28 of 50) are classified as Category III, which is characterized by an upward trend with an increase in variance in the distribution. Moreover, stations with a downward trend with a decrease in the variance pattern (Category VII) are mainly distributed on the southern Korean coast. On the other hand, Category I stations are mostly located in eastern Korea and primarily show a statistically significant upward trend with a decrease in variance. Moreover, this study explored changes in design rainfall estimates for different categories in terms of distributional changes. For Categories I, II, III, and VI, a noticeable increase in design rainfall was observed, while Categories IV, V, and VII showed no evidence of association with risk of increased extreme rainfall.
- URI
- https://iwaponline.com/hr/article/51/4/699/74424/Changes-in-extreme-rainfall-and-its-implicationshttps://repository.hanyang.ac.kr/handle/20.500.11754/163461
- ISSN
- 1998-9563; 1998-9563 2224-7955
- DOI
- 10.2166/nh.2020.003
- Appears in Collections:
- COLLEGE OF ENGINEERING SCIENCES[E](공학대학) > CIVIL AND ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING(건설환경공학과) > Articles
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