A Risk Assessment Methodology for Incorporating Uncertainties using Fuzzy Concepts
- Title
- A Risk Assessment Methodology for Incorporating Uncertainties using Fuzzy Concepts
- Author
- 조효남
- Keywords
- Event tree analysis; Risk analysis; Uncertainty model; Membership curve; Fuzzy set theory; Fuzzy number
- Issue Date
- 2002-11
- Publisher
- ELSEVIER SCI LTD
- Citation
- Reliability Engineering & System Safety, v. 78, issue. 2, page. 173-183
- Abstract
- This paper proposes a new methodology for incorporating uncertainties using fuzzy concepts into conventional risk assessment frameworks. This paper also introduces new forms of fuzzy membership curves, designed to consider the uncertainty range that represents the degree of uncertainties involved in both probabilistic parameter estimates and subjective judgments, since it is often difficult or even impossible to precisely estimate the occurrence rate of an event in terms of one single crisp probability.
It is to be noted that simple linguistic variables such as ‘High/Low’ and ‘Good/Bad’ have the limitations in quantifying the various risks inherent in construction projects, but only represent subjective mental cognition adequately. Therefore, in this paper, the statements that include some quantification with giving specific value or scale, such as ‘Close to any value’ or ‘Higher/Lower than analyzed value’, are used in order to get over the limitations.
It may be stated that the proposed methodology will be very useful for the systematic and rational risk assessment of construction projects.
- URI
- http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832002001588https://repository.hanyang.ac.kr/handle/20.500.11754/157891
- ISSN
- 0951-8320; 1879-0836
- DOI
- 10.1016/S0951-8320(02)00158-8
- Appears in Collections:
- COLLEGE OF ENGINEERING SCIENCES[E](공학대학) > CIVIL AND ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING(건설환경공학과) > Articles
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