기업부도 위험에 영향을 미치는 산업 불확실성 위험요인의 탐색과 실증 분석
- Title
- 기업부도 위험에 영향을 미치는 산업 불확실성 위험요인의 탐색과 실증 분석
- Other Titles
- Investigation and Empirical Validation of Industry Uncertainty Risk Factors Impacting on Bankruptcy Risk of the Firm
- Author
- 한현수
- Keywords
- Industry Value Chain; Inbound Supply Risk; Outbound Demand Risk; Industry Uncertainty; Bankruptcy Risk Forecasting; Supply Chain Risk; Time Lag Regression
- Issue Date
- 2016-09
- Publisher
- 한국경영과학회
- Citation
- 경영과학, v. 33, NO. 3, Page. 105-117
- Abstract
- In this paper, we present empirical testing result to examine the validity of inbound supply and outbound demand risk factors in the sense of early predicting the firm’s bankruptcy risk level. The risk factors are drawn from industry uncertainty attributes categorized as uncertainties of input market (inbound supply), and product market (outbound demand). On the basis of input-output table, industry level inbound and outbound sectors are identified to formalize supply chain structures and relevant inbound and outbound uncertainty attributes and corresponding risk factors. Then, publicly available macro-economic indicators are used to appropriately quantify these risk factors. Total 68 industry level bankruptcy risk forecasting results are presented with the average R-square scores of between 53.4% and 37.1% with varying time lag. The findings offers useful insights to incorporate supply chain risk to the body of firm’s risk level prediction literature.
- URI
- http://koreascience.or.kr/article/ArticleFullRecord.jsp?cn=GOGGCJ_2016_v33n3_105https://repository.hanyang.ac.kr/handle/20.500.11754/76634
- ISSN
- 1225-1100
- DOI
- 10.7737/KMSR.2016.33.3.105
- Appears in Collections:
- GRADUATE SCHOOL OF BUSINESS[S](경영전문대학원) > BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION(경영학과) > Articles
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