Drought risk assessment for future climate projections in the Nakdong River Basin, Korea

Abstract

To prepare for the potential of extreme drought caused by climate change, both physical and socioeconomic factors need to be considered. In this study, three general circulation models were selected: IPSL-CM5A-LR, HadGEM2-AO, and CanESM2 as representative scenarios for severe, moderate, and relatively weak droughts to assess the risk of droughts for future climate projections. Drought hazard was estimated using the meteorological drought index to determine drought frequency, severity, and probability. Population density, agricultural land area, and municipal, agricultural, and industrial water demand were used as drought vulnerability indicators. The Analytical Hierarchy Process technique was applied to determine the weight of each indicator, and the integrated drought risk was then estimated. HadGEM2-AO and CanESM2 projected that drought risk would be reduced in the far future. IPSL-CM5A-LR projected an increased drought risk in the near and far future in the downstream area of the Nakdong River Basin. This study presented a quantitative approach to identify high drought-risk areas that should be the focus of future extreme drought assessments and mid- to long-term drought mitigation strategies.