자율주행 공유 자동차 도입에 따른 서울시 주차수요 변화 예측

Abstract

Autonomous vehicle technology, which has been rapidly developed in recent years, is expected to greatly change urban parking demand in particular when autonomous vehicles are used as shared cars. However, few studies have focused on investigating the potential parking demand changes incurred by the shared autonomous vehicles (SAVs). Under this background, this study attempts to compute the required fleet size of SAVs to provide transportation services for some portions of passenger car travel demand in Seoul and estimate the resultant parking demand changes based on a simulation approach. For this purpose, 20 scenarios are established by varying fleet size and relocation strategy of SAVs. The scenario-based analyses identify that the required SAV fleet size is 5,000 for both 3km and 5km relocation strategies when the SAV market penetration rate is 10%. The model with assumptions of 5,000 SAVs deployed and a 5km relocation strategy shows the greatest reduction in parking demand, which is equivalent to 271 vehicle-hours per day. In addition, the wider relocation strategy implies tradeoffs between operational efficiency and travel distances with no passenger. Although models with a 5km relocation strategy show greater reductions of parking demand and waiting time, they suggest travel distances with no passenger can be longer due to the relocation of SAVs over longer distances.