경쟁상황에서의 전략적 투자의사결정을 위한 실물옵션모형의 확장과 적용

Abstract

This research suggests a framework combining the Real Option Valuation (ROV) theory and the Decision Tree Analysis (DTA) theory for strategic investment decision making in the mobile telecommunications industry under competition.

In managing a firm where there exist no investment incentives due to stagnant demand and high future uncertainties, a new investment decision must be made intuitively by the manager via determining ‘Strategic Necessity’ as suggested by E. K. Clemons rather than DCF methods such as NPV, IRR, Payback.

The model suggested by this paper allows for a more efficient economic valuation considering inherent uncertainties and reflecting managerial flexibility, as well as various strategic alternatives considering competition via DTA when Strategic Necessity needs to be determined as stated above.

Investment projects in the mobile telecommunications industry are large in scale and irreversible, and operators can have the right to ensure the efficiency of the operation by initiating new services (roll out option) and migrating subscribers in existing facilities through new investments. In addition to this, the application of ROA is suitable as it allows the operator to have rights that allow them to have real optional characteristics such as that to share facilities with other operators (strategic alliance option) for verifications via temporary pilot investment (pilot option) and to promote investment competitiveness in order to commercialize a newly developed technology.

Furthermore, the model suggested by this paper would be able to avoid most difficulties in estimating volatility, a major restricting factor in ROV, by directly indicating various strategic alternatives on the Decision Tree as different scenarios based on future uncertainties and reflecting them in the decision making process.

This paper considers the applicability of the ROA theory in evaluating mobile telecommunications investment projects via an empirical study, and it suggests the applicability of the suggested model in the real market by utilizing the model in determining the economical values related to the investment project and how the values measured are altered depending on the strategic alternatives they must consider using three separate Investment Scenarios drew up in relations to Korean mobile telecommunications investment plans.