ICT산업의 발전이 고용에 미친 영향에 대한 연구 : 한국을 중심으로

Abstract

1990년대와 2000년대 초반 미국 경제의 소위 고용 없는 성장이 최근 우리나라에도 나타나고 있다. 고용 없는 성장의 주요 원인으로는 ICT산업의 발전이 손꼽히고 있는데, 이것은 ICT산업이 발전 할수록 고용은 줄어든다는 의견이 다수 존재하고 있기 때문이었다. 그러나 ICT산업이 현대 경제에서 차지하는 비중과 성장을 고려해 볼 때, ICT산업의 중요성은 더욱 강조 될 것으로 예상된다. 따라서 이러한 논의를 바탕으로 본 연구는 국내 ICT산업의 발전이 고용에 부정적으로 영향을 미치는지에 대해 알아보고자하였다. 연구방법은 1995년부터 2011년까지의 국내 ICT산업 설비 총 설비투자량과 ICT산업 총 생산량을 ICT산업 발전의 대리변수로 두고, 고용변수를 全산업의 총고용, 이중 제조업, 서비스업, 그리고 ICT산업의 총고용으로 세분화하여 벡터자기회귀모형 (VAR, Vector Autoregressive)을 사용하여 실증분석을 하였다. 분석결과를 분야별로 살펴보면, 국내 ICT산업의 발전은 서비스업 부분에서 큰 고용감소 효과를 보였고, 제조업 부분의 고용은 소폭 상승하였으며, ICT산업내의 고용과는 통계적으로 유의한 관계가 없는 것으로 나타났다. 종합적으로 ICT산업의 발전은 全산업 총고용에 부정적인 영향을 미친다는 결과를 나타내었는데, 이는 全산업 총고용에 미치는 서비스 산업의 비중이 다른 산업에 비해 크기 때문으로 해석된다. 결론으로 기존에 고용에 대한 우려 때문에 국내 ICT산업의 투자를 줄여야한다는 우려와 달리, 본 연구결과에서는 ICT산업의 발전이 고용에 반드시 부정적 영향을 미치는 것이 아니라는 것을 알 수 있었으며, 향후 지속적인 고용문제를 해결하기 위해서는 ICT산업의 투자 및 인력양성과 숙련도에 대한 제고가 필요하겠다.| In recent, our country shows the same situation with the so-called jobless growth of the American economy in the 1990s and the early 2000s. The main cause of jobless growth is considered to be the development of the ICT industry and there is an argument that the more the ICT industry develops, the less employment becomes. Based on this discussion, this study attempts to examine the negative influences of the domestic ICT industry on employment. As for the research method, the investment in the domestic ICT facilities and the total of ICT output from 1995 to 2011 were chosen as proxy variables and the total employment of all industries was divided into the total employment of the manufacturing industry, the service industry and the ICT industry for empirical analysis through VAR(Vector Autoregressive). According to each field, the domestic ICT development showed the effect of huge employment decrease in the service industry and the employment of the manufacturing industry increased slightly and they did not have a statistically significant relationship with the employment within the ICT industry. In general, the development of the ICT industry was proved to give negative influences on the total employment of the whole industry and it is analyzed that it is because the importance of the service industry influencing the total employment was bigger than other industries. In conclusion, different from the insistence on the decrease of the investment in the domestic ICT industry due to the worry about the existing employment, the results of this study suggest that the development of the ICT industry does not necessarily give negative influences on employment and the enhancement of investment in the ICT industry, training manpower and workmanship to solve consistent employment problems in the future is required.; In recent, our country shows the same situation with the so-called jobless growth of the American economy in the 1990s and the early 2000s. The main cause of jobless growth is considered to be the development of the ICT industry and there is an argument that the more the ICT industry develops, the less employment becomes. Based on this discussion, this study attempts to examine the negative influences of the domestic ICT industry on employment. As for the research method, the investment in the domestic ICT facilities and the total of ICT output from 1995 to 2011 were chosen as proxy variables and the total employment of all industries was divided into the total employment of the manufacturing industry, the service industry and the ICT industry for empirical analysis through VAR(Vector Autoregressive). According to each field, the domestic ICT development showed the effect of huge employment decrease in the service industry and the employment of the manufacturing industry increased slightly and they did not have a statistically significant relationship with the employment within the ICT industry. In general, the development of the ICT industry was proved to give negative influences on the total employment of the whole industry and it is analyzed that it is because the importance of the service industry influencing the total employment was bigger than other industries. In conclusion, different from the insistence on the decrease of the investment in the domestic ICT industry due to the worry about the existing employment, the results of this study suggest that the development of the ICT industry does not necessarily give negative influences on employment and the enhancement of investment in the ICT industry, training manpower and workmanship to solve consistent employment problems in the future is required.