니켈 시장 및 자원 확보 방안 연구

Abstract

국내 산업은 지난 반세기 동안 비약적인 발전을 이뤄 기존 제조업 중심에서 지식·서비스 산업 중심으로 산업이 빠르게 전환되고 있지만, 여전히 국내 산업 및 경제발전의 대부분이 대규모로 수입된 에너지자원에 의존하고 있다. 국내 산업의 중심축을 이루고 있는 제조업을 뒷받침하기 위한 노력의 일환으로 그동안 국내 에너지자원 자급률을 높이기 위해 많은 노력을 기울였지만, 에너지자원에 대한 96%에 이르는 높은 해외의존도는 줄어들지 않고 연간 수입되는 광물자원도 꾸준히 늘어 이에 대한 지불비용만도 30조원에 이르고 있다.

이에 본 논문에서는 국내 광물자원 확보를 위한 방안을 제시하기 위해 국내 6대 전략광종 중 하나이자 광물 수입 10위인 니켈을 중심으로 그 특성 및 시장에 대한 이해 후 니켈자원 확보방안에 대해 다음과 같이 제시하였다. 우선 산업內 니켈 활용에 대한 이해와 전세계 니켈 수요·공급 현황 그리고 니켈 시장에 대해 조사하여, 니켈자원의 유통경로에 대한 이해를 높여 향후 니켈 자원의 공급 및 가격 변동성에 대해 알아보고 이를 바탕으로 향후 국제 자원시장에서 국내 니켈자원 자급률을 높일 수 있는 방안을 알아보았다.

니켈시장에 대한 연구 결과 향후 전세계 니켈 가격 상승 및 공급축소가 예상되며, 국내산업의 안정적 니켈 수급을 위해 본격적인 수요·공급 불균형에 이르기전 이에 대한 대비가 필요하다. 하지만, 신규광산 투자사업이 제한적인 현재의 상황에 비추어 봤을 때, 대규모 신규 투자를 통한 니켈자원 확보방안은 쉽지 않아 보인다. 따라서 대규모 신규투자를 지양하고 저비용으로 국내산업을 위한 니켈 자원을 확보할 수 있는 방안을 중점으로 국내 니켈자원 자급률을 높일 수 있는 방안을 제시하였다.

우선 한국광물자원공사가 확보한 마다가스카르內 니켈 프로젝트의 Off-take와 포스코가 확보한 뉴칼레도니아內 니켈 자원 등 국내업체가 기존에 확보한 니켈 Off-take 권리를 최대한 활용하여 한국으로의 반입물량을 확대할 수 있는 방안을 제시하였다. 그리고 국내 광산물 비축사업과 연계하여 니켈자원에 대한 비축물량 증대 및 비축니켈 제품 다변화를 통해 향후 국내 산업에 안정적으로 니켈을 공급할 수 있는 방안을 제시하여 예상되는 니켈가격 변동성과 공급축소에 대비할 수 있는 방안을 본 논문에서 제시하였다.

니켈자원의 확보방안에 대해 연구했지만, 위에서 언급한 방안들은 단기적인 방안일 뿐이다.. 기존에 확보한 Off-take 물량도 제한이 있으며, 국내 수요를 모두 충족시킬 만큼 충분하지 않기 때문이다. 따라서 장기적인 관점에서 자원 확보를 위해서는 투자를 통한 자원 확보가 병행돼야 한다. 특히, 장기간 낮은 자원가격의 영향으로 품질 및 생산이 검증된 좋은 프로젝트까지 시장에 나와 있는 지금이 투자 적기라고 생각한다. 기존 해외자원개발 투자를 통해 신규프로젝트에 대한 대규모 투자가 많은 리스크가 따름을 배운 만큼, 이미 가행주이며, 검증된 프로젝트를 대상으로 한 투자를 통해 리스크를 줄이는 방법으로 자원을 확보하는 방안이 현 시점에서 적합할 것 같다.|Korean domestic industry has achieved rapid development during the last half century, and it has been swiftly shifting from the manufacturing oriented industry to the knowledge and service industry, however, most domestic industry and economic development still rely on large-scale of imported energy resources. As a part of efforts to support the manufacturing industry, which is still the center of the domestic industry, much efforts have been made to increase the self-sufficiency rate of domestic energy resources, but the high dependency on energy resources, which comes to 96%, is undiminished and annually imported mineral resources have been steadily increasing and the cost is reached to about 30 trillion won for importing the resources.

In this dissertation, the following is proposed about how to secure nickel resources after understanding characteristics and market of nickel, one of the six strategic minerals and 10th imported mineral in Korea in order to suggest a measure for securing domestic mineral resources.

First of all, I raised comprehension of the distribution channel by understanding about the nickel products and by researching global nickel demand and supply situation and its market, and I studied the ways to increase the self-sufficiency rate of nickel resources. As a result of research on the nickel market, I found that nickel prices are expected to rise and supply will decline around the world, and it is necessary to prepare for the steady supply of nickel in the domestic industry before reaching the full-scale supply and demand imbalance. However, given the limited current situation of new mining investment business, it seems not easy to secure nickel resources through large-scale new investments.

Therefore, I intended to present a plan to increase domestic nickel self-sufficiency rate, focusing on measures to secure nickel resources for the domestic industry at low cost by avoiding large-scale new investment. First, I suggested a way to maximize the amount of material brought into Korea by making the best use of off-take right of the nickel project in Madagascar secured by the Korea Mineral Resources Corporation and the nickel resources in New Caledonia secured by POSCO. And a plan to prepare for the expected nickel price fluctuation and supply reduction is proposed by presenting how to provide nickel steadily in future domestic industry through increasing stockpile of nickel resource and diversification of stockpile nickel products in connection with the domestic mining stockpile business.

From the long-term perspective, it will be necessary to assertively secure resources by activating aggressive overseas investment and by takingover projects which have been shutdown and suffering from operation due to long-term low nickel prices. However, in a circumstance where the investment conditions for internal and external mining projects are not good, this research is progressed to present a possible plan to support domestic industry until the investment conditions in the market are improved by utilizing the existing resources the most rather than securing resources through new investments, which seems more realistic.; Korean domestic industry has achieved rapid development during the last half century, and it has been swiftly shifting from the manufacturing oriented industry to the knowledge and service industry, however, most domestic industry and economic development still rely on large-scale of imported energy resources. As a part of efforts to support the manufacturing industry, which is still the center of the domestic industry, much efforts have been made to increase the self-sufficiency rate of domestic energy resources, but the high dependency on energy resources, which comes to 96%, is undiminished and annually imported mineral resources have been steadily increasing and the cost is reached to about 30 trillion won for importing the resources.

In this dissertation, the following is proposed about how to secure nickel resources after understanding characteristics and market of nickel, one of the six strategic minerals and 10th imported mineral in Korea in order to suggest a measure for securing domestic mineral resources.

First of all, I raised comprehension of the distribution channel by understanding about the nickel products and by researching global nickel demand and supply situation and its market, and I studied the ways to increase the self-sufficiency rate of nickel resources. As a result of research on the nickel market, I found that nickel prices are expected to rise and supply will decline around the world, and it is necessary to prepare for the steady supply of nickel in the domestic industry before reaching the full-scale supply and demand imbalance. However, given the limited current situation of new mining investment business, it seems not easy to secure nickel resources through large-scale new investments.

Therefore, I intended to present a plan to increase domestic nickel self-sufficiency rate, focusing on measures to secure nickel resources for the domestic industry at low cost by avoiding large-scale new investment. First, I suggested a way to maximize the amount of material brought into Korea by making the best use of off-take right of the nickel project in Madagascar secured by the Korea Mineral Resources Corporation and the nickel resources in New Caledonia secured by POSCO. And a plan to prepare for the expected nickel price fluctuation and supply reduction is proposed by presenting how to provide nickel steadily in future domestic industry through increasing stockpile of nickel resource and diversification of stockpile nickel products in connection with the domestic mining stockpile business.

From the long-term perspective, it will be necessary to assertively secure resources by activating aggressive overseas investment and by takingover projects which have been shutdown and suffering from operation due to long-term low nickel prices. However, in a circumstance where the investment conditions for internal and external mining projects are not good, this research is progressed to present a possible plan to support domestic industry until the investment conditions in the market are improved by utilizing the existing resources the most rather than securing resources through new investments, which seems more realistic.