Full metadata record
DC Field | Value | Language |
---|---|---|
dc.contributor.author | 예상욱 | - |
dc.date.accessioned | 2020-01-22T02:45:35Z | - |
dc.date.available | 2020-01-22T02:45:35Z | - |
dc.date.issued | 2019-11 | - |
dc.identifier.citation | PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, v. 116, No. 45, Page. 22512-22517 | en_US |
dc.identifier.issn | 0027-8424 | - |
dc.identifier.uri | https://www.pnas.org/content/116/45/22512.short | - |
dc.identifier.uri | https://repository.hanyang.ac.kr/handle/20.500.11754/122184 | - |
dc.description.abstract | El Nino's intensity change under anthropogenic warming is of great importance to society, yet current climate models' projections remain largely uncertain. The current classification of El Nino does not distinguish the strong from the moderate El Nino events, making it difficult to project future change of El Nino's intensity. Here we classify 33 El Nino events from 1901 to 2017 by cluster analysis of the onset and amplification processes, and the resultant 4 types of El Nino distinguish the strong from the moderate events and the onset from successive events. The 3 categories of El Nino onset exhibit distinct development mechanisms. We find El Nino onset regime has changed from eastern Pacific origin to western Pacific origin with more frequent occurrence of extreme events since the 1970s. This regime change is hypothesized to arise from a background warming in the western Pacific and the associated increased zonal and vertical sea-surface temperature (SST) gradients in the equatorial central Pacific, which reveals a controlling factor that could lead to increased extreme El Nino events in the future. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models' projections demonstrate that both the frequency and intensity of the strong El Nino events will increase significantly if the projected central Pacific zonal SST gradients become enhanced. If the currently observed background changes continue under future anthropogenic forcing, more frequent strong El Nino events are anticipated. The models' uncertainty in the projected equatorial zonal SST gradients, however, remains a major roadblock for faithful prediction of El Nino's future changes. | en_US |
dc.description.sponsorship | B.W., Y.-M.Y., and X.L. are supported by Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology through the establishment of the China-US Joint Atmosphere-Ocean Research Center at the University of Hawaii, and by NSF/Climate Dynamics Award AGS-1540783. J.L. and B.W. are supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant 41420104002) and the National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant 2016YFA0600401). W.C. is supported by Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research (CSHOR) and the Earth System and Climate Change Hub of the Australian Government's National Environment Science Program. CSHOR is a joint research center between Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology (QNLM) and Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO). S.-W.Y. is supported by National Research Foundation Grant NRF-2018R1A5A1024958. M.A.C. was supported by NSF Award OCE 1657209. This is the International Pacific Research Center (IPRC) publication no. 1404, the School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology (SOEST) publication no. 10794, and Earth System Modeling Center (ESMC) publication no. 279. | en_US |
dc.language.iso | en_US | en_US |
dc.publisher | NATL ACAD SCIENCES | en_US |
dc.subject | El Nino onset | en_US |
dc.subject | El Nino diversity | en_US |
dc.subject | El Nino onset regime shift | en_US |
dc.subject | future projection of extreme El Nino | en_US |
dc.title | Historical change of El Nino properties sheds light on future changes of extreme El Nino | en_US |
dc.type | Article | en_US |
dc.relation.no | 45 | - |
dc.relation.volume | 116 | - |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1073/pnas.1911130116 | - |
dc.relation.page | 22512-22517 | - |
dc.relation.journal | PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA | - |
dc.contributor.googleauthor | Wang, Bin | - |
dc.contributor.googleauthor | Luo, Xiao | - |
dc.contributor.googleauthor | Yang, Young-Min | - |
dc.contributor.googleauthor | Sun, Weiyi | - |
dc.contributor.googleauthor | Cane, Mark A. | - |
dc.contributor.googleauthor | Cai, Wenju | - |
dc.contributor.googleauthor | Yeh, Sang-Wook | - |
dc.contributor.googleauthor | Liu, Jian | - |
dc.relation.code | 2019002080 | - |
dc.sector.campus | E | - |
dc.sector.daehak | COLLEGE OF SCIENCE AND CONVERGENCE TECHNOLOGY[E] | - |
dc.sector.department | DEPARTMENT OF MARINE SCIENCE AND CONVERGENCE ENGINEERING | - |
dc.identifier.pid | swyeh | - |
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