열화시스템의 수리를 위한 베이지안 의사결정 모형의 개발

Abstract

This paper is intended to develop a Bayesian decision model for the optimal repair of deteriorating system. A non-homogeneous Poisson process with a power law failure intensity function is used to describe the occurrence of deteriorating system failures. In order to make an optimal repair policy it is necessary to consider many uncertainties related to the deteriorating system. For this purpose, a probability distribution is inferred by using the Bayesian probability modeling approach. In addition, the optimal repair decision process is proposed in case of considering a repair cost function.