Exploring the Relationship between Data Aggregation and Predictability to Provide Better Predictive Traffic Information

Abstract

Providing reliable predictive traffic information is a crucial element for successful operation of intelligent transportation systems. However, there are difficulties in providing accurate predictions mainly because of limitations in processing data associated with existing traffic surveillance systems and the lack of suitable prediction techniques. This study examines different aggregation intervals to characterize various levels of traffic dynamic representations and to investigate their effects on prediction accuracy. The relationship between data aggregation and predictability is explored by predicting travel times obtained from the inductive signature-based vehicle reidentification system on the I-405 freeway detector test bed in Irvine, California. For travel time prediction, this study employs three techniques: adaptive exponential smoothing, adaptive autoregressive model using Kalman filtering, and recurrent neural network with genetically optimized parameters. Finally, findings are discussed on suggestions for applying prediction techniques effectively.