The impact of aging population on housing prices in China

Abstract

In order to deeply analyze the mechanism of real estate fluctuation affecting residents' consumption and provide reasonable control ideas, this paper analyses the changing mechanism and trend of housing demand from the perspective of population age structure, and provides control ideas on this basis. This paper mainly uses the methods of theoretical analysis and empirical analysis to sort out the existing research results in detail. According to the theory of population transformation, housing demand determination and consumption decision-making, it clarifies the logical relationship between the change of population age structure and housing demand, and builds the theoretical framework of the full text. It is found that both economic and real estate development are affected by the change of population structure. The creation of a large number of employment labor force by the baby boom is an important basis for economic and real estate prosperity. This paper summarizes the characteristics of the current age structure of the population in China, which are mainly manifested in the decline of the proportion of the working population and the aggravation of the aging trend, which bring serious downward pressure to the development of the economy and the real estate market, and have a far-reaching impact on the consumption demand of the residents. In the empirical analysis, this paper constructs a housing demand determination theory based on population age structure, uses panel data of 29 provinces and municipalities from 2006 to 2015 to test the relationship between population age structure change and housing demand, and combines stationarity test and Hausman test to determine that this paper uses stochastic effect to estimate. In order to cope with the challenges brought by the change of population structure, real estate regulation needs to consider the changes of population factors from the overall perspective.