Analyzing the Adoption and Cascading Process of OSN-Based Gifting Applications: An Empirical Study

Abstract

To achieve growth in the user base of online social networks-(OSN) based applications, word-of-mouth diffusion mechanisms, such as user-to-user invitations, are widely used. This article characterizes the adoption and cascading process of OSN-based applications that grow via user invitations. We analyze a detailed large-scale dataset of a popular Facebook gifting application, iHeart, that contains more than 2 billion entries of user activities generated by 190 million users during a span of 64 weeks. We investigate (1) how users invite their friends to an OSN-based application, (2) how application adoption of an individual user can be predicted, (3) what factors drive the cascading process of application adoptions, and (4) what are the good predictors of the ultimate cascade sizes. We find that sending or receiving a large number of invitations does not necessarily help to recruit new users to iHeart. We also find that the average success ratio of inviters is the most important feature in predicting an adoption of an individual user, which indicates that the effectiveness of inviters has strong predictive power with respect to application adoption. Based on the lessons learned from our analyses, we build and evaluate learning-based models to predict whether a user will adopt iHeart. Our proposed model that utilizes additional activity information of individual users from other similar types of gifting applications can achieve high precision (83%) in predicting adoptions in the target application (i.e., iHeart). We next identify a set of distinctive features that are good predictors of the growth of the application adoptions in terms of final population size. We finally propose a prediction model to infer whether a cascade of application adoption will continue to grow in the future based on observing the initial adoption process. Results show that our proposed model can achieve high precision (over 80%) in predicting large cascades of application adoptions. We believe our work can give an important implication in resource allocation of OSN-based product stakeholders, for example, via targeted marketing.