호텔개발사업 재무적 타당성 분석에서 확률론적 시스템 다이내믹스 방법 고찰

Abstract

This study is aimed at introducing System Dynamics as a Stochastic Method and introducing a phased application for financial feasibility analysis according to the analytic procedure of system dynamics, in order to apply it to tourism. System Dynamics is a research method which focuses on predicting a pattern of growth or change by describing interrelation among factors causing the changes. Procedure of construction and analysis of System Dynamics Model is divided to five phases: (1) to perceive and define problem and set boundary of system model; (2) to draw a map of causality which conceptualize the problem at the view of feed-back; (3) to construct qualitative model based on the map of causality, so that we may simulate it on computer; (4) to review feasibility of simulation model so constructed. (5) to analyze the model so constructed. Application of system dynamics in the financial feasibility analysis of tourism development project can include factors which have been presupposed or omitted in the traditional methods into the model, and various alternatives can be suggested in which we set stochastic range value as input value by better predicting uncertainty through the model.