전문가설문 및 엔트로피 가중치 기법을 이용한 국내 지진위험성 평가에 관한 연구

Abstract

본연구는전문가설문및엔트로피가중치기법을이용하여전국의지진위험성을평가하였다. 연구에 사용된 지표는 정부간 기후변화 패널에서 분류하고 있는 4개의 상위 지표 중 위해성, 노출성, 취약성 3개 지표에 따라 10개의 하위지표를 선정하여 전문가 설문조사에 활용하였다. 설문 결과를 엔트로피 가중치 기법을 활용하여 위험점수를 산정하였으며, 위해성, 노출성, 취약성을 단순 합산하여 일정 비율에 따라 위험도를 5개로 등급화하였 다. 연구결과최근대규모지진이발생한경주및포항이위치한동남권지역에5등급으로국내에서지진이가장 위험한 지역으로 나타났다. 또한 동남권 지역 인근에 원자력발전소, 대규모 산업단지 등이 밀집되어있어, 2차, 3차 연쇄재난의가능성이클것으로나타났다. 따라서동남권지역의지진재난대응역량강화를위해구조및비구 조적 대책 마련이 필요하다고 판단된다. This study evaluated the national earthquake risk using expert questionnaire and entropy weighting technique. As for the indicators used in the study, 10 sub-indices were selected according to the 3 indicators of risk, exposure, and vulnerability among the 4 top indicators classified by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and used in the expert survey. Then, the risk score was calculated using the entropy weighting technique for the survey results, and the risk, exposure, and vulnerability were simply summed up, and the risk was graded into 5 levels according to a certain ratio. As a result, Gyeongju and Pohang, where large-scale earthquakes occurred recently, were ranked as the 5th grade in the southeastern region where earthquakes were most dangerous in Korea. In addition, since nuclear power plants and large-scale industrial complexes are concentrated near the southeastern region, the possibility of secondary and tertiary chain disasters is high. Therefore, it is urgently required to prepare structural and non-structural countermeasures to strengthen the earthquake disaster response capacity in the southeast region.