Probabilistic Risk Analysis ＆ Response Strategy Model for Subway Construction Projects

Abstract

This paper presents a systematic probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) and its response strategy model for general construction projects and demonstrates the applicability of the suggested model to a specific subway construction project. Since the approach is able to effectively deal with all the related construction risks in terms of the assumed probability with conditional probability concept that systematically incorporate expert's experiences and subjective judgement, the proposed model with uncertainty modeling using fuzzy set theory is able to apply to all the construction projects with minor modifications in order to confirm specific projects characteristics. The fuzzy approach is very useful, for those countries, such as Korea, where objective probabilistic data for risk assessment is extremely rare, and thus the utilization of subjective judgmental data based on expert's experiences is inevitable.