정부소비지출 및 투자지출과 국민소득의 인과관계분석

Abstract

The paper tests causal relations between government consumption expenditure and national income and between government investment expenditure and national income in Korea over the period 1972 to 1996. The tests are performed for the three levels of governments which are central, local, and general. This paper intends to investigate whether the types of government expenditures and the levels of governments make different effects on the causal relations in both nominal and real data. As expected, Wagner’s principle of the causal relation from national income to government expenditure is somewhat useful for the causal relation between government consumption expenditure and national income in all government levels, although Keynesian interpretation of the causal relation from government expenditure to national income is also supported for general government consumption expenditures. The test results for government investment expenditures strongly support the Wagner’s principle in both nominal and real data but partly support the Keynesian interpretation only in nominal data. The level of governments does not make any differences in the results for government investment expenditures. Overall, Wagner’s principle is observed more useful in Korea.