동적시스템의 신뢰도 평가를 위한 베이지안망의 적용

Abstract

This paper is intended to assess a dynamic system reliability. Bayesian networks, however, have difficulties in their application for assessing the system reliability especially when the system consists of dependent components and the probability of failure of each component varies over time. Hence, we suggest a method for resolving the difficulties by considering a hoist system composed of two wires. Firstly, we explain the method of calculating the failure probability of the system components. Secondly, we show how to calculate the failure probability of the system for two cases that failure probability of each wire is constant and varying in time, respectively. Finally, based on the calculated failure probability of the system, we infer the probability that two interesting events occur.