Analysis of the Dynamic Relationship between Fluctuations in the Korean Housing Market and the Occurrence of Unsold New Housing Stocks

Abstract

In this paper, we intend to identify the characteristics of occurrence of unsold new housing stocks and draw the implications for the housing business strategy that can effectively cope with the market risk under the Korean housing market. As a result of the analysis, most of the theoretical causality of occurrence of unsold new housing stocks under the three-dimensional Korean housing market was found to correspond to the empirical analysis result. In addition, the chonsei market that produces the characteristic movement of Korean housing market had a significant relation with occurrence of unsold new housing stocks. Because of these results, it is thought that the proposed housing business strategy can effectively cope with the housing market risk. It is thought that we need to additionally examine the financial validity of the proposed housing business model by calculating the cash flow and grope for policy support measures to materialize it on the basis of the analysis result of this paper.