부산항 컨테이너 환적요인에 관한 실증분석

Abstract

부산항은 2015년 기준 세계 3위의 환적화물 처리 항만으로 2000년 이후 연평균 15.6%씩 성장하였다. 최근 세계 1, 2위의 환적 처리항만인 싱가포르, 홍콩항의 물동량 하락세가 나타났으나 부산항은 여전히 7% 이상의 높은 증가세를 유지하고 있다. 이에 본 연구는 부산항 환적물동량이 왜 지속적으로 증가하는지, 어떠한 요인들이 환적 물동량에 영향을 미치는지 분석했다. 이를 위해 기존의 선행연구에서 주로 사용된 설문조사가 아닌 대리변수를 이용한 실증 분석을 실시하였다. 실증분석 결과 부산항 네트워크, 북중국항만, 선석 효율성 등의 요인이 부산항 환적 물동량에 영향을 미친 것으로 나타났다.

The container transshipment volume of the port of Busan, with the No. 3 world ranking in 2015 followed by Singapore and Hong Kong, has increased by 15.6 percent year by year since 2000. In recent years, the port of Basan has still retained the higher growth rate with the value of 7% in the transshipment throughput, even though those of the port of Singapore and Hong Kong have been decreased. This study analyzed to find out which determinants affect the transshipment volume of the port of Busan. The study picked out the five main determinants or independent variables, such as ships" operating costs of carriers, location, the volume of the Northern Chinese seaports, port"s efficiency, and the size of containership in the literature reviews. The empirical analysis was done with some proxy variables with the quantitative values which were consisted of time-series data sets. The Unit Root Test and Co-integration Test were done for all of time-series variables in the models. The results indicated that all variables(Cost, North-China port throughput, etc.) could affect the container transshipment throughput of the port of Busan. Especially the study found out that Busan port’s networks would be one of the most influential determinants, which results is related with previous studies.