BASS 모형을 활용한 ‘국민체력100’의 수요예측에 관한 연구

Abstract

The main purpose of this current study was to predict the demand the National Fitness 100 utilizing Bass model as the most widely used tool in the realm of marketing and econometrics. The following three target centers of Seongdong(Seoul), Seocho(Seoul) and Chungju(Chungbuk) were selected out of a total of 26 fitness centers in the nation mainly due to its the relatively low drop-out rate of participants and its convenience of data collection. The results displayed that the Innovation Coefficient (0.012) was low which explained earlier spreading speed of its service was also quite slow while both the Imitation Coefficient(0.302) and q/p value(25.167) were very high. Moreover, it was found that Seongdong center was more likely to have higher values of the Innovation Coefficient(0.048) and the Potential Demand than its counterpart centers and secondly, high value of the Innovation Coefficient(0.096) was shown in Seocho center with the Potential Demand (20,256) being not as high as it was expected. Finally, in CheongJu center, while the Innovation Coefficient was not as high as it was expected(0.039), the Potential Demand of the service was to be very high(49,005) and thus q/p value(2.795) was supposed to be close to 1, which proved there was steady satisfaction in this service.