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dc.contributor.author전영준-
dc.date.accessioned2018-04-03T07:34:35Z-
dc.date.available2018-04-03T07:34:35Z-
dc.date.issued2012-08-
dc.identifier.citation한국개발연구원, Vol.34 No.3 [2012], pp.31-65(35쪽)en_US
dc.identifier.issn1738-656X-
dc.identifier.urihttps://www.kci.go.kr/kciportal/ci/sereArticleSearch/ciSereArtiView.kci?sereArticleSearchBean.artiId=ART001693756-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11754/57196-
dc.description.abstract본 연구에서는 세대 간 회계를 이용하여 현행 재정정책의 유지 가능성과 최근 논의되고 있는 복지확대정책이 재정건전성과 세대 간 형평성에 미치는 영향에 대해 분석하였다. 분석 결과, 현행 재정정책은 유지 가능하지 못하며, 재정수지 불균형도 매우 큰 것으로 나타났다. 재정지출 수준을 통제하지 않는 한 납세자의 재정부담이 감내할 수 없을 정도로 높아질 수 있을 것으로 예상된다. 또한 최근 논의되고 있는 무상의료와 같은 복지지출 확대정책은 납세자의 재정부담을 대폭적으로 높이게 된다. 무상급식, 무상보육, 반값등록금 지급과 관련된 복지확대정책은 현시점에서의 금액이 비교적 크지 않으며 낮은 출산율로 인해 향후 보육인구와 학령인구가 줄어듦에 따라 지출액이 줄어들 것으로 예상되어 이들 정책으로 인한 재정부담의 증대규모가 비교적 크지 않은 반면, 무상의료의 경우는 현시점에서의 금액도 매우 클 뿐만 아니라 인구의 노령화로 인해 수급자 수가 증가할 것으로 예상되므로 이로 인한 재정부담이 더욱 증가할 것으로 예상된다.We study the sustainability of the current fiscal policy of Korea, and the effects of the social welfare policy expansion, which has been recently discussed among the political circles, on the government budget and the generational equity, using generational accounting. We follow the generational accounting approach, considering the fact that most of the social welfare policies are the entitlement programs, which imposes the limitation of the policy maker's discretion to control the cost of their provision. The social welfare expenditure will change due to the change in the policy environments of the future, such as population aging. Therefore, we need to take into account the government cash flow of the future as well as of the present to investigate its effects on the fiscal sustainability, which implies that the national debt or the budget balance is not a proper index for the investigation.Our findings are as follows. The current fiscal policies are not sustainable, and the long-term budgetary imbalance is shown very serious. The required tax adjustment, which is defined as the percentage change of tax burden required to attain the long-term budgetary balance, is very large. Unless the level of the government expenditure is properly controlled, the tax burden and the social contribution level will rise to the untolerable level. Moreover, the expansion of the social welfare policies, which has been discussed among the political circles, will substantially increase the fiscal burden of the future generations. Even though the provision of the free lunch to the primary and the secondary school students, the free child care, and the discounted college tuition do not increase the fiscal burden much, because their magnitude at present is not large and will decrease due to the decrease in the number of the newborns and the students resulting from the fall in the fertility rate, that of the free health care service will increase tax burden of the future generations very much, because the magnitude of the government expenditure needed at present is very large and the population aging will further increase the magnitude of the health care expenditure.The findings indicate that the structural reforms, to prevent the explosive increase in the social welfare expenditure in the future, are necessary before the implementation of the welfare policy expansion. In particular, the cost control of the social transfers to the elderly needs to be made, because the speed of the population aging of Korea is among the highest in the world. The findings also indicate that the budget balance or the national debt can cause the fiscal illusion, which makes the Korean government budget look sound, even though the fiscal policy will rapidly increase the social welfare expenditure in the future, as the population ages. The generational accounting, which takes into account the cash flow of the future as well as of the present, unlike the budgetary balance and the national debt, which shows the results of the government financial activities of the past and the present, is a useful method to overcome the fiscal illusion.en_US
dc.language.isoko_KRen_US
dc.publisher한국개발연구원en_US
dc.subject인구고령화en_US
dc.subject세대간회계en_US
dc.subject사회복지정책en_US
dc.subject세대간형평성en_US
dc.subject재정건전성en_US
dc.subjectPopulation Agingen_US
dc.subjectGenerational Accountingen_US
dc.subjectSocial Welfare Policyen_US
dc.subjectGenerational Equityen_US
dc.subjectFiscal Sustainabilityen_US
dc.title복지지출 확대가 세대 간 형평성에 미치는 효과 분석: 세대 간 회계를 이용한 접근en_US
dc.title.alternativeSocial Welfare Policy Expansion and Generational Equity: Generational Accounting Approachen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
dc.relation.no3-
dc.relation.volume34-
dc.identifier.doi10.23895/kdijep.2012.34.3.31-
dc.relation.page31-65-
dc.relation.journal한국개발연구-
dc.contributor.googleauthor전영준-
dc.contributor.googleauthorChun, Young Jun-
dc.relation.code2012215003-
dc.sector.campusS-
dc.sector.daehakCOLLEGE OF ECONOMICS AND FINANCE[S]-
dc.sector.departmentDIVISION OF ECONOMICS & FINANCE-
dc.identifier.pidyjchun-
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COLLEGE OF ECONOMICS AND FINANCE[S](경제금융대학) > ECONOMICS & FINANCE(경제금융학부) > Articles
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