생산요소 대체를 고려한 지역 노동수급 예측에 관한 연구

Abstract

This paper aims to forecast the long-term regional labor demand-supply according to demographic aging in consideration of substitution among production factors by industry. Towards that end, the labor supply by region and by cohort was forecasted in consideration of labor migration, and the labor demand by region, by industry and by cohort in consideration of the substitution effect among cohorts was forecasted so as to examine the future labor market demand-supply gap. The findings of the analysis revealed that, in 2030, across South Korea, 804,000 labor in 20’s, 768,000 labor in 30’s and 582,000 labor in 40’s will be replaced by different cohorts, and that 315,000 labor in 50’s and 1,838,000 labor in 60’s and older will replace other cohorts. Given this inter-age group substitution effect, the future labor demand-supply unbalance associated with demographic aging will be significantly decreased. Despite this inter-age group substitution, however, the key labor age groups of 20’s, 30’s and 40’s will lack a total of 4,171,000 labor, while middle and advanced age labor groups of 50’s and 60’s or older will lack 1,260,000 labor. As such, a labor demand-supply unbalance will continue. To prepare for the projected future labor market demand-supply unbalance in line with demographic aging, policies suitable to each cohort and regional conditions should be formulated.