Estimating time to full uterine cervical dilation using genetic algorithm

Abstract

The objectives of this study were to provide new parameters to better understand labor curves, and to provide a model to predict the time to full cervical dilation (CD). We studied labor curves using the retrospective records of 594 nulliparas, including at term, spontaneous labor onset, and singleton vertex deliveries of normal birth weight infants. We redefined the parameters of Friedman's labor curve, and applied a three-parameter model to the labor curve with a logistic model using the genetic algorithm and the Newton - Raphson method to predict the time necessary to reach full CD. The genetic algorithm is more effective than the Newton Raphson method for modeling labor progress, as demonstrated by its higher accuracy in predicting the time to reach full CD. In addition, we predicted the time (11.4 hours) to reach full CD using the logistic labor curve using the mean parameters (the power of CD = 0.97 cm/hours, a midpoint of the active phase = 7.60 hours, and the initial CD = 2.11 cm). Our new parameters and model can predict the time to reach full CD, which can aid in the forecasting of prolonged labor and the timing of interventions, with the end goal being normal vaginal birth. Copyright (c) 2012, Elsevier Taiwan LLC. All rights reserved.