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On-the-fly Estimation Strategy for Uncertainty Propagation in Two-Step Monte Carlo Calculation for Residual Radiation Analysis

Title
On-the-fly Estimation Strategy for Uncertainty Propagation in Two-Step Monte Carlo Calculation for Residual Radiation Analysis
Author
신창호
Keywords
Error Propagation; On-the-fly; Monte Carlo; Residual Radiation; Stochastic Uncertainty
Issue Date
2016-01
Publisher
KOREAN NUCLEAR SOC
Citation
NUCLEAR ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY, v. 48, NO 3, Page. 765-772
Abstract
In analyzing residual radiation, researchers generally use a two-step Monte Carlo (MC) simulation. The first step (MC1) simulates neutron transport, and the second step (MC2) transports the decay photons emitted from the activated materials. In this process, the stochastic uncertainty estimated by the MC2 appears only as a final result, but it is underestimated because the stochastic error generated in MC1 cannot be directly included in MC2. Hence, estimating the true stochastic uncertainty requires quantifying the propagation degree of the stochastic error in MC1. The brute force technique is a straightforward method to estimate the true uncertainty. However, it is a costly method to obtain reliable results. Another method, called the adjoint-based method, can reduce the computational time needed to evaluate the true uncertainty; however, there are limitations. To address those limitations, we propose a new strategy to estimate uncertainty propagation without any additional calculations in two-step MC simulations. To verify the proposed method, we applied it to activation benchmark problems and compared the results with those of previous methods. The results show that the proposed method increases the applicability and user-friendliness preserving accuracy in quantifying uncertainty propagation. We expect that the proposed strategy will contribute to efficient and accurate two-step MC calculations. Copyright (C) 2016, Published by Elsevier Korea LLC on behalf of Korean Nuclear Society.
URI
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S173857331600019X?via%3Dihubhttp://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11754/30523
ISSN
1738-5733
DOI
10.1016/j.net.2016.01.009
Appears in Collections:
RESEARCH INSTITUTE[S](부설연구소) > INNOVATIVE TECHNOLOGY CENTER FOR RADIATION SAFETY(방사선안전신기술연구소) > Articles
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