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전월세전환율의 지역별 편차와 공실률

Title
전월세전환율의 지역별 편차와 공실률
Other Titles
Regional Deviation of Chonsei to Monthly Rent Conversion Rate and Vacancy Rate
Author
이창무
Keywords
전월세전환율; 공실률; 위험프리미엄; 레버리지가설; 패널분석; Chonsei to Monthly Rent Conversion Rate; Leverage-effect-seeking Hypothesis; Panel Analysis; Risk Premium and Vacancy Rate
Issue Date
2015-11
Publisher
한국주택학회
Citation
주택연구, v. 23, NO 4, Page. 5-21
Abstract
본 연구는 기존 연구에서 이론적으로 제기된 내용을 토대로 공실률, 투자수익률, 위험프리미엄이 전월세전환율 결정구조의 차이가 존재하는지 여부를 실증분석을 시도하였다. 이론모형의 결과는 전월세전환율은 자본환원율과 기대가격상승률이 높을수록, 혹은 두 가지를 결합하여 요구수익률이 높을수록, 그리고 시장이자율이 높을수록, 마지막으로 시장공실률이 높을수록 높아지는 기제를 지니고 있는 것으로 나타났다. 패널모형을 이용한 실증분석의 결과는 시장이자율보다 지역 주택시장의 특성을 반영하는 시장공실률의 영향력이 전월세전환율에 더 크게 영향을 주는 것으로 나타났다. 이러한 실증분석 결과는 시장이자율에 기초한 전월세전환율 규제가 오히려 시장의 균형조건을 왜곡시킬 가능성이 높고 지역주택시장의 특성을 반영하지 못하면서 실효성이 떨어질 가능성이 있음을 보여준다. This study analyzes Monthly Rent with Variable Deposit data in the apartment market to examine a relationship among vacancy rate, market interest rate, expected return on investment, and Chonsei to Monthly Rent Conversion Rate. We develop a theoretical model of Chonsei to Monthly Rent Conversion Rate determination structure, according to the previous leverage-effect-seeking hypothesis. The theoretical model yields that Chonsei to Monthly Rent Conversion Rate is rising when expected return on investment, market interest rate, and vacancy rate increase respectively. For empirical analysis of the theoretical interpretations, panel analysis was carried out on apartment complexes market in 16 regions excepted for Sejong. The results as following. Firtst, the vacancy rate is the most effective factor on Chonsei to Monthly Rent Conversion Rate among others. Second, the difference of determination structure according to the regions is also an important effect factor. These results show that Chonsei to Monthly Rent Conversion Rate regulation based only on the market interest rate would distort the market balance and be less effective.
URI
http://www.kahps.org/bbs/data01.htmlhttp://scholar.dkyobobook.co.kr/searchDetail.laf?barcode=4010024740916http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11754/28576
ISSN
1226-2676
Appears in Collections:
COLLEGE OF ENGINEERING[S](공과대학) > URBAN PLANNING AND ENGINEERING(도시공학과) > Articles
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