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분위회귀를 이용한 주택규모별 수요예측

Title
분위회귀를 이용한 주택규모별 수요예측
Other Titles
Forecasting Distribution of Dwelling Size Using Quantile Regression Model
Author
이창무
Keywords
주택수요; 주택규모; 분위회귀; 인구구조 변화; Housing demand; Dwelling Size; Quantile Regression; Demographic Change
Issue Date
2015-09
Publisher
한국부동산분석학회
Citation
부동산학연구, v. 21, NO 3, Page. 45-62
Abstract
Korean housing market currently faces demographic changes such as the increase in single-person or elderly households and the deceleration of population growth. Based on these changes some researchers anticipate that the demand for small-sized housing units will dramatically increase. And they argue that the portion of small-sized units in housing construction has to be increased. We propose the use of quantile regression as a method for estimating the distributional change of dwelling sizes and forecast long-term housing demand. The advantage of using quantile regression is that it can produce estimates of changes in the distribution of a dependent variable. In light of this issue, the current study examines changes in the distribution of dwelling sizes in the Korean housing market during the past 35 years and estimates housing demand change based on existing trends. The results show that both the average size of housing units and the range of dwelling sizes have increased in the last 35 years. Quantile regression suggests that the estimated future housing demand suggests that demand for medium and large-sized units will increase despite the upward trend of one- or two- person households. These results imply that the demand for small housing units will not be dominant and the excessive construction of small-sized units should be avoided.
URI
http://kiss.kstudy.com/journal/thesis_name.asp?tname=kiss2002&key=3357937http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11754/27317
ISSN
1229-4403
Appears in Collections:
COLLEGE OF ENGINEERING[S](공과대학) > URBAN PLANNING AND ENGINEERING(도시공학과) > Articles
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