Equity Indices' Returns: Contingent Claims on GDP Stochastic Movements

Abstract

This paper proposes an equity index contingent claim model. The model assumes that the equity broad-based market indices’stochastic movements are contingent to macroeconomic risk factors that are derived from Ho et al.’s (HPS, 2012, 2013) and Ho and Lee’s (HL, 2015b, 2015c) theoretical models. The results show that these factors can explain the equity indices’ returns reasonably well.