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dc.contributor.author정철-
dc.date.accessioned2016-07-14T02:18:32Z-
dc.date.available2016-07-14T02:18:32Z-
dc.date.issued2015-02-
dc.identifier.citation관광레저연구, v. 27, NO 2, Page. 59-77en_US
dc.identifier.issn1229-0424-
dc.identifier.urihttp://www.dbpia.co.kr/Journal/ArticleDetail/NODE06229287-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11754/22006-
dc.description.abstractThe purpose of this study is to find out the method appropriate for the forecasting of traveler demand using time series model and efficient operation in Dok-do office. Time series monthly data for the investigation were collected ranging from Apr. 2005 to Mar. 2013. A total of 96 observations were used for data analysis. Research findings showed that the multiplicative seasonal ARIMA(1,0,11)(1,1,0)12 model was the most appropriate among models. The number of traveler in Dok-do was expected to continually rise and surpass 25 million in 2015. Based on the predictive results of time series model, the improvement issues and suggestions of Dok-do tour are as following: Firstly, in order to maintain the Dok-do traveler, we need to improve coastal ferry route and facilities. Secondly, in order to expand the tourism revenue by maintaining the Dok-do traveler demands, it is necessary to carry out policies to maintain and develop Dok-do tourism products.en_US
dc.language.isoko_KRen_US
dc.publisher(사)한국관광레저학회en_US
dc.subject수요예측(Demand Forecast)en_US
dc.subject시계열(Time series)en_US
dc.subject도서관광(Island Tourism)en_US
dc.subject계절모형(Seasonal ARIMA model)en_US
dc.subject독도관광(Dok-do tourism)en_US
dc.title일변량 시계열 모형 비교를 통한 독도관광 수요예측en_US
dc.title.alternativeDemand Forecasting of Dok-do Tourism using Comparison of Univariate Time Seriesen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
dc.relation.no2-
dc.relation.volume27-
dc.relation.page59-77-
dc.relation.journal관광레저연구-
dc.contributor.googleauthor정철-
dc.contributor.googleauthor김원표-
dc.contributor.googleauthor황경후-
dc.relation.code2015040058-
dc.sector.campusS-
dc.sector.daehakCOLLEGE OF SOCIAL SCIENCES[S]-
dc.sector.departmentDIVISION OF TOURISM SCIENCE-
dc.identifier.pidjeong72-
Appears in Collections:
COLLEGE OF SOCIAL SCIENCES[S](사회과학대학) > TOURISM(관광학부) > Articles
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