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Present-day North Atlantic salinity constrains future warming of the Northern Hemisphere

Title
Present-day North Atlantic salinity constrains future warming of the Northern Hemisphere
Author
박인홍
Issue Date
2023-07-13
Publisher
NATURE PORTFOLIO
Citation
NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE, v. 13, NO 8, Page. 816-822
Abstract
Earth system models exhibit considerable intermodel spread in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation intensity and its carbon uptake, resulting in great uncertainty in future climate. Here we show that present-day sea surface salinity (SSS) in the North Atlantic subpolar region modulates anthropogenic carbon uptake in the North Atlantic, and thus can be used to constrain future warming. Specifically, models that generate a present-day higher SSS in the North Atlantic subpolar region generate a greater uptake of anthropogenic carbon in the future, suppressing the greenhouse effect and resulting in slower warming, and vice versa in models with a present-day lower SSS. Emergent constraints based on the observed SSS greatly reduce the uncertainty of the Northern Hemisphere surface temperature warming and accumulative carbon uptake by about 30% and 53%, respectively, by the end of the twenty-first century under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 5-8.5 scenario.,
URI
https://information.hanyang.ac.kr/#/eds/detail?an=edssjs.4769AAE&dbId=edssjshttps://repository.hanyang.ac.kr/handle/20.500.11754/190368
ISSN
1758-678X; 1758-6798
DOI
10.1038/s41558-023-01728-y
Appears in Collections:
RESEARCH INSTITUTE[E](부설연구소) > INSTITUTE OF OCENA AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES(해양ㆍ대기과학연구소) > Articles
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