The Impact of the Pandemic and Epidemic on GDP

Abstract

This paper investigates the economic impact of pandemics and epidemics using country-level data. The result shows that after the pandemic outbreak, the GDP dropped 0.4% relative to a synthetic control country without intervention. The GDP dropped 0.1% for HK flu compared to what it should have. Correspondently, for MERS, Ebola, and Zika, the GDP dropped by 3.6%, 0.3%, and 0.7% of GDP respectively. The impact last and get more significant in the following five years. The GDP in affected countries dropped by 1.9% of GDP in the second year, 2.6 % of GDP in the third year, 3.3% of GDP in the fourth year, and 4.9% of GDP in the fifth year.