Effectiveness of the vaccination and quarantine policy to suppress the spreading of COVID-19

Abstract

Today, the world is suffering social and economic damage from COVID-19. Many countries are applying vaccination and social policies such as social distancing and quarantine to decrease the damage caused by COVID-19. Recent studies have demonstrated the effectiveness of vaccination and social policy using a mathematical model. In this paper, we propose an SVEIQR model that considers both vaccination and social policy (quarantine) at the same time. First, we make the SVEIQR model reproduce the transmission of COVID-19 in Seoul by using Bayesian inference and the number of infected people of COVID-19 in Seoul. Second, we analyze the vaccination effect, which decreases the number of infected people, through the SVEIQR model applied to the efficacy of each vaccine obtained clinically. Third, we analyze which factors are more effective by comparing the total number of infected people according to the vaccination speed of each vaccine and social policy (quarantine). Finally, we also propose a modified SVEIQR model that considers population and contact by age. We suggest an effective vaccination speed strategy and analyze the total number of infected people according to the vaccination speed and social policy (quarantine). This study will be able to suggest a direction for policymaking for the effective application of vaccination and social policy.