기성시가지 역세권에서 업조닝이 토지이용패턴 변화에 미치는 영향

Abstract

New public transit stations are being developed in areas that have been densely developed, and new developments are increasing around the stations (Giuliano, 1995). In the vicinity of the station in built-up area where the density is already high and land use is decided, development is realized when it is worth developing at a higher density than the existing buildings (Schuetz et al., 2018). It is difficult to predict development changes around the station in an built-up area, and changes will occur over a long period of time. Few studies were conducted in considering the characteristics of the station catchment area in built-up area. For the realization of TOD in a built-up area, not only the built environment but also the role of zoning is important. Zoning is a major urban planning tool that changes development density and land use around stations (Knight & Trygg, 1977; Giuliano, 1989; Greenberg, 2004; Ellis, 2005; Schuetz et al., 2018). Empirical studies on the impact on development density and land use changes in the station catchment area within an built-up area are limited to physical characteristics (Sung & Oh, 2011; Sung & Choi, 2014; Cho & Lee, 2018; Wang, et al., 2019). The importance of zoning is limited to descriptive discussion, and empirical research is lacking. Up-zoning either encourages or hinders the realization of development. Up-zoning enhances the value of development so that development can be realized quickly even if there is no public transit (Lee, 1991; Schuetz et al., 2016; Dong, 2021). Up-zoning in a built-up area rather increases the real estate price, lowering the effectiveness of development (Seoul institute, 2016; Lee 2016; Gabbe, 2018; Freemark, 2020). Since previous studies have mainly been discussed from a short-term perspective, it is difficult to sufficiently observe the effect of up-zoning. The effect of up-zoning on development and realization can appear over a long period of time, so a study from a long-term perspective is necessary. Few studies have confirmed the effect of combining TOD and up-zoning. The purpose of this study is to prove the effect of up-zoning on the change in development density in the station chatchment area in the built-up area of Seoul. Accordingly, two research questions were established. First, does up-zoning improve the change in floor area ratio even in the station area in the built-up area? In the station area within the established city where the land use pattern has been determined, development will be realized when there is development value even if it is up-zoned. Second, what kind of difference appears on the change in floor area ratio according to the characteristics of up-zoning? The change of floor area ratio will differ depending on the characteristics of up-zoning such as the year of up-zoning and type of zoning. Therefore, it is necessary to objectively verify this. The scope of this study is to focus on 189 subway stations in Seoul in 1997. In the temporal range, 1997 was set as the base year, and 2016 was set as the result year to examine the change in floor area ratio over 20 years. The unit of analysis of the study is the parcel unit, and a total of 158,884 pracels are included in the 189 station chatchment areas. Among them, 9,100 parcels were up-zoned and 149,784 were not up-zoned. The research procedure is as follows. First, previous studies and theories on the realization of TOD in a built-up area and the relationship between the built environment and zoning were reviewed. Second, the hypothesis of the study was derived and the analysis structure of the study was established accordingly. Third, descriptive analysis was performed to confirm the characteristics of up-zoning, development density, and built environment within the station chatchment area. Fourth, empirical analysis was performed to confirm the effect of up-zoning on the change of floor area ratio by land use within the station chatchment area. The dependent variable was set as the change in floor area ratio in 1997 compared to 2016 for individual parcel within the station chatchment area. Zoning and Parcel characteristics were set as major independent variables, and the built environment of parcel units and station chatchment areas in 1997 was set as control variables. Since the spatial unit of the independent variable has a hierarchical structure, the analysis model is a multi-level regression model. As for the analysis model, the first stage was set to the entire station area and the second stage to the up-zoning lot. Each detailed model was divided into residential and non-residential (commercial, business) in 2016. It was confirmed whether up-zoning improved the change of floor area ratio in the built-up area. According to the descriptive analysis, the amount of floor area ratio change was larger in the up-zoned parcels (143.3%p) than in the non-upzoned parcels (70.1%p) that were not upzoned. In the empirical analysis, it was confirmed that up-zoning was an important factor in increasing the change in floor area ratio (28.39%p) even when other physical environments were controlled. Even when land use was classified, the effect of up-zoning on the change in floor area ratio within the station area was positive. The impact was greater for non-residential use (27.60%p) than for residential use (17.27%p). From a long-term perspective, it was confirmed that up-zoning can be used as a tool to effectively implement station area development. It was verified whether there was any difference in the effect on the change of floor area ratio according to the characteristics of up-zoning. The characteristics of up-zoning were largely divided into years of up-zoning and up-zoning type. The longer the elapsed years of up-zoning, the more positive the change in floor area ratio. It is estimated that there is a high probability that the development will be realized over a long period of time of 15 years or more in the station area within the built-up area. Contrary to the empirical studies (Seoul Research Institute, 2016; Lee, 2016; Freemark, 2020) that up-zoning can impede development, the opposite result was found. It was confirmed that the realization of development by up-zoning in the built-up area took a long time. There was a difference in the effect on the change of floor area ratio according to the up-zoning type and land use characteristics. The change in floor area ratio according to up-zoning type was R-C (83.6%p), R-SR (47.0%p), and SR-C (40.3%p) in the order. When the legal floor area ratio was up-zoned from the general residential area to the commercial area, which had the highest change of 900%p, the floor area ratio changed the most. In the empirical analysis, as for residential use in 2016, R-C and SR-C types up-zoned to commercial areas increased the change in floor area ratio than R-SR. It is presumed to be the result of residential-commercial complex development in a commercial area. In 2016, it was confirmed that the change in floor area ratio increased when non-residential use was up-zoned to a semi-residential area rather than up-zoned to a commercial area. It is presumed that this is because small-scale commercial facilities are developed in high density. This study has academic significance in that it demonstrated the relationship between the realization of TOD and zoning, which was discussed only descriptively. Considering the characteristics of up-zoning, there was no study that confirmed the effect on the change of floor area ratio, so it is meaningful to confirm this. Within the station area, up-zoning has different effects on development realization depending on the characteristics of the parcel and land use, so urban design and planning are necessary in consideration of this. Development due to up-zoning will require urban planning and policies through long-term observation. It will be possible to use it as a basic data to establish an up-zoning policy considering the characteristics of up-zoning.|기성시가지 내 역 주변의 개발실현에서는 물리적 현황과 더불어 조닝의 역할이 중요하다. 조닝은 역 주변에서 개발밀도, 토지이용변화를 유도할 수 있는 주요한 도시계획 도구로써 활용되고 있다(Knight & Trygg, 1977; Schuetz et al., 2018). 이미 밀도가 높고, 토지이용이 결정되어 있는 대중교통역 주변에서는 기존 건물보다 고밀로 개발할만한 가치가 있을 때 개발이 실현된다(Schuetz et al., 2018). 기성시가지에서는 역 주변의 개발변화를 예측하기 어려우며, 오랜 시간에 걸쳐 변화가 나타날 수도 있다. 역세권 내 개발실현에서 조닝의 역할이 중요하다는 논의는 서술적인 논의에만 그쳤으며, 실증연구는 부족한 실정이다. 업조닝은 개발의 실현을 장려하기도 하고, 방해하기도 한다는 논의가 있다. 업조닝은 개발가치를 향상시켜 대중교통 인프라가 없더라도 개발을 빠르게 실현시키기도 한다(이종화, 1991; Dong, 2021). 기성시가지 내에서 업조닝은 부동산 가격을 상승시켜 오히려 신축개발을 저해하기도 한다(서울연구원, 2016; 이제원, 2016). 선행연구들은 주로 단기적인 관점에서 논의되어왔으므로 업조닝의 영향을 충분히 관찰하기에는 어려움이 있다. 업조닝이 개발실현에 미치는 영향은 오랜시간에 걸쳐 나타날 수 있으므로 장기적 관점에서의 연구가 필요하다. 특히 역세권 개발과 업조닝을 결합하여 그 영향을 확인한 연구는 거의 없었다. 본 연구는 서울시 기성시가지 내 역세권에서 업조닝이 개발밀도 변화에 미치는 영향을 실증하는 것이 목적이다. 이에 따라 2가지 연구질문을 설정하였다. 첫째, 기성시가지 내 역세권에서도 업조닝은 용적률 변화를 향상시키는가? 이미 토이지용패턴이 결정된 기성시가지 내 역세권에서는 업조닝을 하더라도 개발가치가 있어야 개발이 실현될 것이므로 이에 대한 실증이 필요하다. 둘째, 업조닝의 특성에 따라 용적률 변화에 미치는 영향은 어떠한 차이가 나타나는가? 업조닝된 필지 중에서 업조닝 경과년도, 용도지역과 같은 업조닝의 특성에 따라 용적률 변화에 차이가 있을 것이므로 객관적인 검증이 필요하다. 본 연구는 서술적으로만 논의되었던, TOD의 실현과 조닝의 관계를 실증하였다는데 학술적 의의를 가진다. 특히, 업조닝의 경과년수, 용도지역 등 업조닝의 특성을 고려하여 용적률변화에 미치는 영향을 확인한 연구는 없었으므로, 이를 확인하였다는데 의미가 있다.