Calibration and validation of person-based trip production models of optional trip purposes

Abstract

Trip generation models are typically calibrated using zone-based aggregated data, despite some theoretical drawbacks pertaining to the use of aggregated data. This study demonstrates that models calibrated with disaggregated data not only have a better theoretical basis, but also forecast more accurate trip productions. In particular, optional trip purposes are focused on the calibration of trip production models, of which trips tend to be irregularly generated, rendering it difficult to build more reliable models. There are three models calibrated: an aggregate model with zone-level data, a disaggregate model with household-level data, and with household and person-level data using household survey data for two years. The prediction accuracy and stability of the models are compared and verified using statistical methods. It is discovered that calibrating a trip production model using household and person-level data jointly yields a better calibration method.