Sequential Combination of FIB-4 Followed by M2BPGi Enhanced Diagnostic Performance for Advanced Hepatic Fibrosis in an Average Risk Population

Abstract

The fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index is the most widely used estimated formula to screen for advanced hepatic fibrosis; however, it has a considerable intermediate zone. Here, we propose an algorithm to reduce the intermediate zone and improve the diagnostic performance of screening for advanced liver fibrosis by incorporating Mac-2-binding protein glycan isomer (M2BPGi) into a FIB-4 based screening strategy in an average risk group. Four-hundred eighty-eight healthy and chronic liver disease subjects were analyzed using a 1:1 propensity score matched for age and sex. Advanced liver fibrosis (>= F3) was defined by magnetic resonance elastography (MRE, >= 3.6 kPa). Classification tree analysis was employed to improve diagnostic performance using a combination of the FIB-4 index and M2BPGi. The median serum M2BPGi levels of healthy subjects, patients without advanced fibrosis, and those with the condition were 0.48, 0.94, and 2.93, respectively. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve of M2BPGi (0.918) for advanced fibrosis was the highest compared to those of the FIB-4 index (0.887), APRI (0.873), and AST/ALT ratio (0.794). When M2BPGi was incorporated following the FIB-4 index, the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) were 87.1%, 82.5%, 54.0%, and 96.4%, respectively. Moreover, 74.3% (133/179) of cases in the intermediate zone of the FIB-4 index avoided unnecessary referrals. Two-step pathway (FIB-4 followed by M2BPGi) could reduce unnecessary referrals and/or liver biopsies in an average-risk population.