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위험도분석을 이용한 철도투자사업 경제성 평가 적용방안

Title
위험도분석을 이용한 철도투자사업 경제성 평가 적용방안
Other Titles
Application of Risk Analysis for Economic Evaluation of Railroad Investments
Author
서선덕
Issue Date
2001-05
Publisher
한국철도학회
Citation
한국철도학회 2001년도 춘계학술대회논문집, page. 44-51
Abstract
To account for uncertainties involved in an economic analysis of project, sensitivity analysis are usually being done in Korea. Though useful for policy analysis, but it lacks explicit consideration of probability of occurring certain events considered in the sensitivity analysis. Risk analysis otherwise can explicitly account for the probability of certain event which has dire impact on project viability, such as cost, discount rate, and size of benefit. This paper reports experience of applying risk analysis method for economic evaluation of railroad investment. Probability distribution of event has paramount impact on the risk analysis results, while not many prior researches dealt with these issues. Probability distribution of rolling stock cost and operating cost, in addition to those cost variables, are developed considering railway demand in this study. Case study results are reported. Issues in applying risk analysis are reported in addition to further research direction.
URI
https://www.dbpia.co.kr/journal/articleDetail?nodeId=NODE00794313https://repository.hanyang.ac.kr/handle/20.500.11754/158446
Appears in Collections:
COLLEGE OF ENGINEERING SCIENCES[E](공학대학) > TRANSPORTATION AND LOGISTICS ENGINEERING(교통·물류공학과) > Articles
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