Deriving a Likelihood Model for Fatigue Lifetime Based on the Physics of Crack-Propagation

Abstract

This paper presents an approach to derive likelihood models for use in engineering design problems. One main point is made. It is that incorporating engineering knowledge into a likelihood model is possible. The work is foundational in nature, but is developed with an explicit example taken from fatigue failure problem of a structural component, the Paris crack-propagation criterion, and a modified truncated Gaussian distribution.