ARIMA 수요과정을 갖는 제품의 장기보충계약

Abstract

장기보충계약 모형을 제시하고 효율성을 검증함. We are concerned with a long-term replenishment contract for a product with the ARIMA demand process. The system is composed of one supplier, one buyer and consumers for the product. The replenishment contract is based upon the well-known(s, Q) policy but allows us to contract future replenishments at a time with a price discount . Due to the larger forecast error of the future demand, the buyer should keep a higher level of safety stock to provide the same level of service as the usual(s, Q) policy. However, the buyer can reduce his purchase cost by ordering a larger quantity at a discounted price. Hence, there exists a trade-off between the price discount and the inventory holding cost. For the nonstationary demand data generated from the ARIMA process, we present a model for the contract. We also introduce an algorithm to find the suitable number of the future replenishments to be contracted at a time. Numerical experiments show that the algorithm is efficient and accurate.