이주지 선택모형에 기초한 실용적 주택사업지 흡수수요 산정방안

Abstract

Conventional methodologies for estimating the effective demand attracted by a residential project have failed to incorporate the fact that the realization of someone’s residential demand requires their residential mobility. This movement on space has its origin and destination. In this sense, a demand analysis in the housing market needs to link properly demand generation and demand absorption in different locations. Therefore the housing demand absorbed in a project site should be able to reflect the destination selection mechanism of potential customers at the origin under the competition with other residential developments. This location choice process has been well analyzed with the MCI model (Multiplicative Competitive Interaction Model). However, the conventional MCI model needs to be modified to incorporate the fact that people choose a house exclusively in a location rather than the location itself. Also, MCI model is not easy to use in the practical field because it requires high level of expertise in estimation and operation. Therefore, this study develops a step-by-step procedure that can estimate the residential housing demand with embracing the revised version of MCI model for the housing market.