부동산 개발사업 유형별 이익률 영향요인 분석 및 리스크 관리방안 연구

Abstract

최근 들어 부동산 개발사업은 토지가격과 공사비 등 비용상승과 부동산 경기하강에 따른 분양가격 하락으로 인해 사업성을 확보하기 어려운 상황으로 치닫고 있다. 그동안 부동산 개발업계는 사업환경의 변화에 맞춰 고부가가치 창출이 가능한 투자개발방식을 추구하고 있으나, 개발사업에 필요한 사업비와 사업기간, 마케팅 등 기본적인 요인 이외에도 주변 개발환경과 부동산시장, 정부의 부동산정책 변화 등의 많은 외부적 요인들이 사업에 영향을 미침에 따라 개발방향을 잡기 힘든 상태다. 이에 따라 부동산 개발사업에서도 주어진 환경 하에서 주먹구구식으로 추진하던 기존 방식과 달리 개발사업 시행 전에 성공가능성에 대한 면밀하고 정확한 예측과 검토가 필요하며, 기획단계에서부터 분석의 정확도를 높이고 위험성을 낮출 수 있는 방안으로써 사업타당성 검토의 필요성이 대두되고 있다. 다시 말해, 부동산 개발사업에서 사업성에 영향을 미치는 요인에 대한 검토는 사업주나 투자자의 올바르고 정확한 의사결정과 개발사업 시행 전 제반 위험요소 제거를 위해 반드시 선행되어야 할 의무사항으로 인식되고 있다. 이같은 부동산투자 패러다임의 변화 속에서 부동산 개발사업을 수익성을 확보하기 위해서는 정교하고 투명하게 투자가치와 성과를 분석할 수 있는 기법의 도입이 절실히 필요하게 됐다. 본 연구에서는 합리적이고 타당한 투자의사결정을 하기 위하여 신뢰도 높은 투자가치분석의 핵심이 되는 재무적 타당성 분석방안을 찾고자 했다. 이를 위해 부동산 투자나 개발사업에 있어서 사전이나 사후에 손익가치와 투자가치를 분석하는 방법을 이론적 분석방법과 실제 사업성 분석 사례들을 찾아보고 실증분석을 실시했다. 특히 부동산 개발사업 사례분석을 통해 손익이나 투자가치를 어떻게 분석했으며 변수에 따라 수익률과 현재가치가 어떻게 변화하는지 과정을 추적했다. 부동산 개발사업에서 가장 중요한 의사결정 포인트는 사업성이다. 사업성을 확보하기 위해서는 무엇보다 주어진 분양가 아래에서 토지비와 공사비 등 비용을 최소화하는 것이다. 도시형 생활주택과 오피스텔, 호텔, 상업시설 등 분양형 부동산을 중심으로 204개의 사업수지분석표를 문헌 고찰 및 통계학적, 실증적 방법으로 비교 분석한 결과, 구성요소 가운데 수익률에 가장 큰 영향을 미치는 요소는 지상연면적당 토지비로 확인했다. 지역별 연면적당 건축비는 정부 고시 표준건축비와 큰 차이를 보이지 않기 때문에 수익률과의 상관관계는 상대적으로 미미한 것으로 파악됐다. 이럴 경우 건축비와 분양가 요소가 일정한 규칙에 의해 산정된다고 가정하면 개발사업의 사업성 분석에서 연면적당 분양가격이 연면적당 토지비와 연면적당 건축비를 합한 금액의 1.3배, 지상연면적당 토지비와 연면적당 건축비를 합한 금액의 1.1배를 넘지 않을 경우 수익성을 확보하기 어렵다는 사실을 회귀분석과 민감도 분석 등 귀납적인 방법으로 확인했다. 기존에 발달해 온 여러 기법들을 실제 개발프로젝트에 직접 적용하기 위해서는 우선 해당 프로젝트에서 의사결정을 위해 가장 중요시되는 부분이 무엇인지 파악한 다음 여러 투자분석 기법들 가운데 가장 적절한 기법들을 복수로 선정하고 각 투자분석기법의 단점을 보완할 수 있도록 대체적 및 보완적 기법들을 동원해 실제 투자가치분석에서 활용한다면 투자가치분석의 효율성과 신뢰성을 높일 것이다. 이상과 같은 연구결과는 기존의 연구와 달리 실제 부동산 개발사업에 직접 활용도가 높은 연구 성과물이라 할 수 있다. 하지만 본 연구를 통해 도출된 결과값은 개발사업에 대한 모든 위험요소를 완전하게 관리, 제거, 경감, 전가시킬 수 없고 결과값이 절대적인 가치를 지니고 있다고 단정할 수 없다. 다만 의사결정자에게 좀 더 신뢰성을 높이고 위험을 낮출 수 있는 방법을 제공하기 위한 하나의 도구로써 미래의 상황이 어떻게 변할 것인가에 대한 예측을 통해 위험률을 낮출 수 있는 대안을 제안할 뿐이다. 따라서 무엇을 참고하고 어떤 방식으로 활용할 것인가에 대한 판단은 전적으로 의사결정자의 몫일 것이다. 비록 본 연구를 통해 설정되고 채택된 결과값이 절대적인 가치를 지니고 있다고는 할 수 없지만, 그동안 외면되고 있었던 수요자의 의견과 요구가 반영되고 개발사업 수지분석에 대한 포괄적인 검토가 이루어진 것에 의의를 두며, 본 연구를 통해 개발사업의 성공적인 수행과 개발사업 활성화 및 사업타당성 분석연구가 진행될 수 있는 밑거름이 됐으면 하는 기대를 한다.|In so many real estate development projects, there were strong needs to have a powerful tool to check feasibility of those projects. With the change of development environment, today’s development industry is pursuing investment of development business that can create high added value. But there were not enough tool and measure to cover risk of real estate development and construction. Development business is exposed to the impact of many factors including basic factors such as construction cost, construction period and marketing as well as the surrounding environment of development, the condition of the real estate market and changes in the government’s real estate policies. Accordingly, we need to forecast and examine the probability of success accurately before starting a development project, and this raises the necessity of feasibility study as a method of enhancing the accuracy of analysis and reducing risk in the planning stage. The value of feasibility study for investment development projects will be determined by how much it can reflect many factors affecting project suppliers’ decision making such as physical/cultural environment, and profitability and by how reliable its accuracy is. Accordingly, in order to remove risk factors and examine the project as a whole before starting a development project, feasibility study should precede decision making for approving the project. Therefore I tried to find a real tool to measure investment value of development properly and efficiently, by means of case studies of many real estate development projects. Finally I found a fact that no tools of investment value analysis are perfect and efficient to hedge all kinds of risks in projects. Especially NPV(Net Present Value) and IRR(Internal Rate of Return) were not sufficient by themselves to measure investment value. So I found out that XIRR(X-IRR), MIRR(Modified IRR), ARR(Average Rate of Return), PP(Payback Period) and so on, would be supplementaries of proper and efficient investment value analysis. The most important thing to develop real estate asset would be a feasibility study. To secure feasibility of development projects, reducing and minimizing the cost of land and construction also would be the important thing. To analyze optimal land-value for real estate development projects, I have collected more than 204 balance sheets of development projects in South Korea. With the help of statistical technology, I could have selected useful data from those balance sheets. After detailed analysis of statistical data, I could have reached conclusion that the most important factor to earning rate would be land cost per unit ground area under the constraint of given sale price. Also by in depth study of regional and typical data analysis, I could have found conclusion that land cost per unit ground area of official and commercial buildings in Seoul area are the most important factor to earning rate under the constraint of given sale price. So far the main pattern of feasibility study of development projects was land cost and construction cost. However, by this study, I have found a new fact that unit price must be over the limit of about 1.3 multiplied by land cost per unit area and construction cost per unit area. And also, I have found a new fact that unit price must be over the limit of about 1.1 multiplied by land cost per unit ground area and construction cost per unit area. Feasibility analysis is a crucial key to success or failure of real estate development projects. For this reason, there have been many researches on feasibility study, but unfortunately few of them have dealt with the interconnection among project cost factors. In particular, evaluation criteria for feasibility study have been largely overlooked. Existing feasibility analysis in construction company is based on intuitive approach rather than systematic approach. Usually feasibility analysis in a narrow sense is a financial analysis of project. The maximization of profitability can be attained when satisfying the requirements of both the income factors and cost factors, and not only income factors but also cost factors play considerably important roles in making decisions on supply and demand. That is, project suppliers’ success and profits shall be influenced considerably how much the profitability factors are reflected. With this background, the present study purposed methods of setting and applying the weight of evaluation criteria and methods of feasibility study for real estate development projects, aiming to cope with various changes in construction environment. In addition, this study suggested regression analysis on feasibility factors of more than 204 development projects, and proposed statistical hypothesis tests on correlation and interrelation of feasibility factors. However, as this study purposed to suggest directions for the setting and application of the weights of evaluation criteria and feasibility study methods, it has the limitation that detailed subcriteria and alternative methods should be set for each evaluation criterion for their application in the field. Accordingly, future research should be made for defining the subcriteria of the evaluation criteria, implementing them into computer programs, and applying them to actual feasibility studies. This study is meaningful in the point of view that it set and applied the weight of evaluation criteria by reflecting case study and finding problems involved in development projects and that it made a comprehensive review of evaluation criteria through analyzing previous researches. Based on the results of this study, we expect to establish the concept of alternative methods such as XIRR, MIRR, PP, ARR in stead of IRR to activate feasibility study for development projects through more efficient and rational feasibility study methods. And also feasibility analysis focused in this study is confined to the matter of finance. So, the purpose of this study is to analyze the correlation of financial analysis factors about profit rate by means of regression and sensitivity analysis methods and this will improve accuracy of feasibility analysis and decision making.; In so many real estate development projects, there were strong needs to have a powerful tool to check feasibility of those projects. With the change of development environment, today’s development industry is pursuing investment of development business that can create high added value. But there were not enough tool and measure to cover risk of real estate development and construction. Development business is exposed to the impact of many factors including basic factors such as construction cost, construction period and marketing as well as the surrounding environment of development, the condition of the real estate market and changes in the government’s real estate policies. Accordingly, we need to forecast and examine the probability of success accurately before starting a development project, and this raises the necessity of feasibility study as a method of enhancing the accuracy of analysis and reducing risk in the planning stage. The value of feasibility study for investment development projects will be determined by how much it can reflect many factors affecting project suppliers’ decision making such as physical/cultural environment, and profitability and by how reliable its accuracy is. Accordingly, in order to remove risk factors and examine the project as a whole before starting a development project, feasibility study should precede decision making for approving the project. Therefore I tried to find a real tool to measure investment value of development properly and efficiently, by means of case studies of many real estate development projects. Finally I found a fact that no tools of investment value analysis are perfect and efficient to hedge all kinds of risks in projects. Especially NPV(Net Present Value) and IRR(Internal Rate of Return) were not sufficient by themselves to measure investment value. So I found out that XIRR(X-IRR), MIRR(Modified IRR), ARR(Average Rate of Return), PP(Payback Period) and so on, would be supplementaries of proper and efficient investment value analysis. The most important thing to develop real estate asset would be a feasibility study. To secure feasibility of development projects, reducing and minimizing the cost of land and construction also would be the important thing. To analyze optimal land-value for real estate development projects, I have collected more than 204 balance sheets of development projects in South Korea. With the help of statistical technology, I could have selected useful data from those balance sheets. After detailed analysis of statistical data, I could have reached conclusion that the most important factor to earning rate would be land cost per unit ground area under the constraint of given sale price. Also by in depth study of regional and typical data analysis, I could have found conclusion that land cost per unit ground area of official and commercial buildings in Seoul area are the most important factor to earning rate under the constraint of given sale price. So far the main pattern of feasibility study of development projects was land cost and construction cost. However, by this study, I have found a new fact that unit price must be over the limit of about 1.3 multiplied by land cost per unit area and construction cost per unit area. And also, I have found a new fact that unit price must be over the limit of about 1.1 multiplied by land cost per unit ground area and construction cost per unit area. Feasibility analysis is a crucial key to success or failure of real estate development projects. For this reason, there have been many researches on feasibility study, but unfortunately few of them have dealt with the interconnection among project cost factors. In particular, evaluation criteria for feasibility study have been largely overlooked. Existing feasibility analysis in construction company is based on intuitive approach rather than systematic approach. Usually feasibility analysis in a narrow sense is a financial analysis of project. The maximization of profitability can be attained when satisfying the requirements of both the income factors and cost factors, and not only income factors but also cost factors play considerably important roles in making decisions on supply and demand. That is, project suppliers’ success and profits shall be influenced considerably how much the profitability factors are reflected. With this background, the present study purposed methods of setting and applying the weight of evaluation criteria and methods of feasibility study for real estate development projects, aiming to cope with various changes in construction environment. In addition, this study suggested regression analysis on feasibility factors of more than 204 development projects, and proposed statistical hypothesis tests on correlation and interrelation of feasibility factors. However, as this study purposed to suggest directions for the setting and application of the weights of evaluation criteria and feasibility study methods, it has the limitation that detailed subcriteria and alternative methods should be set for each evaluation criterion for their application in the field. Accordingly, future research should be made for defining the subcriteria of the evaluation criteria, implementing them into computer programs, and applying them to actual feasibility studies. This study is meaningful in the point of view that it set and applied the weight of evaluation criteria by reflecting case study and finding problems involved in development projects and that it made a comprehensive review of evaluation criteria through analyzing previous researches. Based on the results of this study, we expect to establish the concept of alternative methods such as XIRR, MIRR, PP, ARR in stead of IRR to activate feasibility study for development projects through more efficient and rational feasibility study methods. And also feasibility analysis focused in this study is confined to the matter of finance. So, the purpose of this study is to analyze the correlation of financial analysis factors about profit rate by means of regression and sensitivity analysis methods and this will improve accuracy of feasibility analysis and decision making.