지정학적 관점에서 본 셰일가스 개발 확대와 러시아 영향력 변화

Abstract

본 논문은 셰일가스 개발이 세계 최대 천연가스 매장국인 러시아의 영향력에 가져온 변화를 지정학적 관점에서 분석한 것이다. 러시아는 냉전 시기 구소련의 국제적 위용을 향수하면서 풍부한 천연자원을 기반으로 경제성장을 이루며 강성대국으로 지위를 키워나가고 있다. 특히 계속되는 유가상승과 국제적인 지구 환경에 대한 관심으로 인해 온실가스 배출이 이슈화 되면서 정치적으로나 경제적으로나 천연가스의 비중도가 높아져 감으로써 세계 최대 천연가스 매장국인 러시아의 국제적 위상 또한 함께 올라갈 수 있었다. 러시아는 이러한 국제 에너지 환경 속에서 풍부한 천연가스와 광대한 수송인프라를 국가 통제 아래 두어 보다 효율적으로 활용하면서 국가안보정책으로 가장 우선시 되는 서・서남부의 변방지역을 통제・관리해 오고 있다. EU 개별국가들과 쌍무적 협력을 이루어 에너지 확보의 경쟁을 가열시켜 분열을 조성하고 CIS국가들에게 차별적인 가격정책과 가스공급 중단・가격인상을 통해 탈 러시아 화를 방지하고 있다. 이렇듯 러시아는 동 지역에서 독점적인 천연가스 공급자 지위를 이용하여 NATO의 확장을 견제하고 CIS국가를 관리하며 자국의 이익 보호와 국경안보를 실현하고 있다. 그러나 최근 기술의 발전으로 인해 미국의 셰일가스 개발이 확대되고 국제적으로 확산되어 감으로써 에너지 수급의 구조적 변화로 인해 국제적 에너지 환경이 변화됨에 따라 동 지역에서의 지정학적 환경에 변화를 주고 있다. 미국의 천연가스 생산이 증가하면서 잔여 석탄이 유럽으로 대량 수출되었고 미국으로 수출되던 중동 LNG가스 역시 유럽으로 흘러들어가면서 유럽의 LNG시장이 활성화 되고 천연가스 가격은 하향되는 반면, 유럽의 천연가스 소비도 감소하면서 유럽 국가들의 러시아에 대한 에너지 의존도가 낮아지고 있다. 또한 유럽과 CIS국가 영토 내에서도 대량의 셰일 가스전이 발견되고 미국을 중심으로 한 서방의 자본과 에너지 기업이 대거 진입하면서 역내 가스전 확보 경쟁에서도 뒤처지고 있는 실정이다. 뿐만 아니라 제정수입의 상당 부분을 천연가스 수출에 의존하고 있는 러시아의 경제에도 큰 타격을 주었다. 비단 경제적 약화는 경제적 측면에서만의 문제가 아니다. 러시아는 강성대국으로 나아가기 위해 군사력 강화에도 상당한 투자를 해오고 있다. 군 개혁을 통해 군의 현대화를 추진하는데 많은 비용을 지불하고 있었지만 최근 경제력 약화로 인해 이러한 군사계획에 차질을 빚고 있다. 향후 2017년 미국이 본격적으로 LNG가스를 수출하고 유럽과 CIS국가들 역시 셰일가스를 본격적으로 생산하게 되면 러시아의 독점적 지위유지는 더욱 힘들게 될 것이며 자원을 무기화하는 외교정책은 더 이상 구사하기 힘들 것으로 전망된다. 미국의 셰일가스 개발과 급변하는 국제 에너지 환경에서 한국은 어떻게 대응할 것인가? 첫째, 미국의 셰일가스 개발이 가져오는 에너지시장의 구조변화와 지정학적 영향력을 종합적으로 판단하여 에너지 공급 안정성을 제고하고 주요 에너지원의 수급 및 가격 변화에 대한 시나리오 분석이나 지역 간 차이 분석을 통해 해외의 합리적인 에너지 도입체계를 구축해야 할 것이다. 둘째, 수출의 다변화를 꾀하려는 러시아와 에너지 협력은 강화하여 러시아의 동북아 가스 수출 인프라를 적극 활용하고 남-북-러 가스관사업의 추진에도 협력을 강화해야 한다. 셋째, 동북아의 저렴하고 안정적인 가스공급을 위한 동북아 LNG가스 거래 시장의 설립하여 동북아 천연가스 시장의 선점 기회를 확보하고 관련서비스업을 통해 부가가치를 창출할 수 있도록 해야 한다.|This thesis was an analysis based on geopolitics view which shows the development of shale gas affects the changes in the world's biggest natural gas country, Russia. Russia has started to have an economic development by taking international status from the Soviet Union having numerous natural resources. Especially, because of the continuous increase in oil price and the interest in the international earth environment, greenhouse gases started to have an issue and the world's largest natural gas country, Russia started to have its international status. Having its plentiful natural gas and huge transport infra, Russia has controled and managed west and south-west area which is an important security spot for Russia. Russia has an incorporate relationship with each of EU country and have a competitive relations to have an energy between CIS countries and it prevents CIS countries from leaving Russification through differentiated price policy and gas supply interruption. Like this, Russia has managed the expansion of NATO and controlled CIS countries by using suppliers' position in the East area and has taken care of the countries' national security. However, because of the recent development of US's expansion of Shale gas development, it has affected a lot in the structure of energy supply, and also affected the geopolitical change in the East Russia. With the increase in US's natural gas supply, the remaining coal was largely exported to Europe, and Middle Easts' LNG gas also exported to Europe. Europe's LNG market, therefore, has well managed and has caused the decrease in the natural gas price. Within this situation, Europe nearly has depended on the natural gas, so that the Russia's role has decreased in Europe. Also there was a huge Shale gas war between Europe and CIS area, and because of the inflow of the western capital and energy corporation, Russia has become less competitive. Moreover, it affected the economic of Russia since Russia largely depended on the export of natural gas. The economic loss was not only a problem in economics. Russia has invested a lot in military power to become a powerful country. Russia has invested a lot in changes in military policy for the modernism in military but it is a problem due to the economic stance's decrease. Later in 2017, when US starts to export LNG gas and Europe and CIS countries start to supply shale gas, Russia will hardly have its exclusive position and the diplomacy policy based on the resources become more difficult. How Korea manage itself in the development of US's shale gas and the immediate change in the international energy environment? First, we have to analyse the geopolitical influence because of the development of US's shale gas and managed energy supply security and try to establish practical energy policy in terms of importing energy resources based on the major energy resources price and the price difference. Second, try to corporate with Russia and try to use North East Asia' gas export infra and push ahead South Korea - North Korea - Russia gas pipe business. Third, build a North East Asia LNG gas market for the North East Asia's cheap and secure gas supply, try to have a major role in North East Asia's LNG gas market and try to have an added value.; This thesis was an analysis based on geopolitics view which shows the development of shale gas affects the changes in the world's biggest natural gas country, Russia. Russia has started to have an economic development by taking international status from the Soviet Union having numerous natural resources. Especially, because of the continuous increase in oil price and the interest in the international earth environment, greenhouse gases started to have an issue and the world's largest natural gas country, Russia started to have its international status. Having its plentiful natural gas and huge transport infra, Russia has controled and managed west and south-west area which is an important security spot for Russia. Russia has an incorporate relationship with each of EU country and have a competitive relations to have an energy between CIS countries and it prevents CIS countries from leaving Russification through differentiated price policy and gas supply interruption. Like this, Russia has managed the expansion of NATO and controlled CIS countries by using suppliers' position in the East area and has taken care of the countries' national security. However, because of the recent development of US's expansion of Shale gas development, it has affected a lot in the structure of energy supply, and also affected the geopolitical change in the East Russia. With the increase in US's natural gas supply, the remaining coal was largely exported to Europe, and Middle Easts' LNG gas also exported to Europe. Europe's LNG market, therefore, has well managed and has caused the decrease in the natural gas price. Within this situation, Europe nearly has depended on the natural gas, so that the Russia's role has decreased in Europe. Also there was a huge Shale gas war between Europe and CIS area, and because of the inflow of the western capital and energy corporation, Russia has become less competitive. Moreover, it affected the economic of Russia since Russia largely depended on the export of natural gas. The economic loss was not only a problem in economics. Russia has invested a lot in military power to become a powerful country. Russia has invested a lot in changes in military policy for the modernism in military but it is a problem due to the economic stance's decrease. Later in 2017, when US starts to export LNG gas and Europe and CIS countries start to supply shale gas, Russia will hardly have its exclusive position and the diplomacy policy based on the resources become more difficult. How Korea manage itself in the development of US's shale gas and the immediate change in the international energy environment? First, we have to analyse the geopolitical influence because of the development of US's shale gas and managed energy supply security and try to establish practical energy policy in terms of importing energy resources based on the major energy resources price and the price difference. Second, try to corporate with Russia and try to use North East Asia' gas export infra and push ahead South Korea - North Korea - Russia gas pipe business. Third, build a North East Asia LNG gas market for the North East Asia's cheap and secure gas supply, try to have a major role in North East Asia's LNG gas market and try to have an added value.