타이완의 경제적 불평등도 변화와 동인

Abstract

Abstract Two primary objectives of this thesis are to trace the evolution of Taiwan’s economic inequality using trend analysis and to explore the drivers of economic inequality, income distribution, and expenditure distribution using regression analysis. We use Taiwan’s Annual Family Income and Expenditure Surveys for 36 years from 1976 to 2011. We apply diverse measures of economic inequality and income distribution to not only total income and total expenditure but also their major components. In trend analysis, we compute Gini coefficients and decile shares of income and expenditure for the total and the components and examine their evolution over time. Main findings from the trend analysis are the following:  Trend in overall inequality. Taiwan’s Gini coefficient of the total household income is similar to the OECD average. It has risen from 0.26 in 1976 to 0.32 in 2011. The Gini coefficient of the total household equivalent income (adjusted for household size) shows similar trend.  Trend in inequality by income group. The income gap between the poor and the rich has been widened, which is the major factor in worsening income inequality. The top decile group takes up more than 36% while the bottom decile group takes up less than 4% of the total income.  Trend in inequality by income component. The earned income (consisting of employee compensation and self-employed income) contributes to total income inequality by over 80%. While property income inequality is the most severe among all components of the household income, its contribution to total income inequality is less than 10% since its proportion in total income is relatively small (5% on average).  Trend in government redistribution. Government has played a role in reducing the household disposable income inequality in Taiwan. However, the top group’s share of total taxes has remained steady (47% in 1976 and 43% in 2011) while the top decile group’s share of total income has risen steadily.  Inequality trend in income, consumption and savings. Between total income and total consumption, the former shows higher inequality. Inequality in total income increases more rapidly than that in total consumption, implying that savings inequality is high and worsens over time. In regression analysis, econometric models such as multicategory logit model, logit regression model, and SUR model are adopted to estimate the effects of socio-economic factors on measures of inequality and distribution (including Gini coefficient, quintile income and expenditure shares, median incomes and expenditures of quintile groups), using the time series data from 1981 to 2011. Main findings from the regression analysis are the following:  Factors reflecting the state of the domestic market. Growth rate raises the income share of the bottom quintile group, improving income distribution. In contrast, inflation lowers the income share of the bottom quintile income group, worsening the income equality  Factors reflecting the state of the labor market. Unemployment reduces real income of the low income group more than the high income group. Female employment raises the household income level although it worsens the income equality, because it raises the household income of the high income group more than that of the low income group.  Openness. Trade openness has contributed to reducing the real household income. Over the period, as Taiwan faces change in trade structure, it loses price competitiveness in the world trade. Taiwan’s SME-oriented growth strategy gradually lost its advantage in developing technology-intensive and heavy industry due to limited capacity for capital investment and weak bargaining power of SMEs. Over the same period, the price index of raw materials has risen more than that of output products. FDI openness has raised the real income of the higher quintile groups, implying that FDI benefits relatively rich people in Taiwan.  Demographic factors. Education is found to worsen income equality. The dependency ratio and the proportion of single household decrease the income share of the lowest quintile group and increase that of the highest quintile group.  Factors reflecting government finances. With increase in the ratio of income taxes to GDP, the tax share of the middle quintile group increases more rapidly than that of the highest quintile group. With globalization, factors of production (especially, capital and technology) move more easily across national borders and government tries to attract more production factors inward by implementing multiple tax exemptions. These tax exemptions benefit the rich who own more capital than the poor. Government expenditure contributes to increasing the income share of the lowest quintile group.