중앙정부 체육예산의 결정요인에 관한 연구

Abstract

국민경제 수준이 향상됨에 따라 삶의 질을 추구하는 사회인식도 함께 높아져 체육에 대한 관심과 행·재정적 수요가 더욱 높아지고 있다. 이에 따라, 국가스포츠경쟁력 제고와 국민건강 증진에 직결되는 체육예산의 안정적인 확보는 매우 중요하다. 이에 본 연구는 국가체육재정의 핵심재원인 중앙정부 일반회계 체육예산에 영향을 미치는 결정요인을 규명하고, 이러한 요인이 체육예산과는 어떤 관계를 갖는지를 구체적으로 살펴봄으로써 향후 중장기적 관점에서 체육예산 수립시 기초자료를 제공함에 목적이 있다. 연구의 범위는 1970년부터 2012년까지 중앙정부 체육관련 부처의 일반회계 예산을 대상으로 추세분석과 상관관계분석, 다중회귀분석, 자기회귀분석을 실시하였다. 종속변수는 체육예산 총액과 비율로 나누어 측정하였으며, 독립변수는 사회·경제적 요인으로 1인당 GNI(국민총소득), 산업화율, 실업률을, 정치·행정적 요인으로 선거여부, 국제경기대회 유치여부, 문화예술 예산을, 점증요인으로 전년도 중앙정부 체육예산을 각각 선정하였다. 연구결과를 살펴보면, 첫째, 체육예산의 추세분석에서 43년간 체육예산 총액과 비율 모두 불규칙적인 양상을 보였다. 2012년 기준 체육예산 총액의 실질가치는 549억원으로 1983년의 698억원보다도 낮은 수준이며, 2012년 정부예산대비 체육예산 비중은 0.03%로써 1970년 0.06%보다 훨씬 낮았다. 국민체육진흥기금의 도입후, 2012년 체육재정 8,759억원 중 기금이 7,251억원을 차지하며 83%의 비중을 보이는 등 체육재정에서 차지하는 일반회계예산의 총액과 비율은 지속적으로 하락하고 있다. 둘째, 체육예산의 총액을 결정짓는 요인으로 산업화율, 문화예술예산 총액, 전년도 체육예산 총액, 국제경기대회 유치여부 순으로 긍정적인 영향력을 보였으며, 반면 1인당 GNI는 부정적인 영향력을 보였다. 셋째, 체육예산의 비율을 결정짓는 요인으로 산업화율, 전년도 체육예산 비율, 문화예술예산 비율, 국제경기대회 유치여부 순으로 긍정적인 영향력을 보였으며, 반면 1인당 GNI는 부정적인 영향력을 보였다. 체육예산의 총액과 비율모형에서 공통적으로 산업화율이 가장 높은 영향을 미치는 결정요인으로 나타났으며, 이는 우리나라가 급격한 산업화를 겪으면서 스포츠가 중요한 여가수단으로 자리매김하고, 스포츠가 고부가가치를 창출하는 산업으로 인정받으며 체육예산 결정에 영향을 미친 것으로 해석할 수 있다. ‘문화재정 2%’라는 공통의 목표달성을 위해 체육과 문화예술 예산 간에 경쟁적 예산배분이 아닌 상호보완적 관계가 있음을 알 수 있었다. 또한 국제경기대회 유치여부에 따라 체육예산이 증가된다는 결과는 국제경기대회가 없는 해에는 체육예산의 총액과 비율 모두 확대되지 않는다고 볼 수 있어, 우리나라 체육예산은 국제경기대회에 대한 의존성이 높다고 해석할 수 있다. 전년도 체육예산이 당해연도 체육예산 결정에 영향을 미친다는 결과는 복지, 문화분야 선행연구와 맥락을 같이하였으며, 이는 체육정책이 국민체육진흥5개년계획 등 중장기 국가체육발전계획과 함께 국제경기대회 유치여부에 따라 재정투자방향이 중장기적인 관점에서 설정되는 경향이 있어, 다음해 체육예산 결정에 미친 영향력이 깊어진 결과로 해석할 수 있다. 그러나, 1인당 GNI가 높아질수록 체육예산에 부정적인 영향을 준 결과는 기존 선행연구와 상반된 결과로써, 지난 43년간 꾸준한 증가추세를 보인 1인당 GNI와 달리, 체육예산은 불규칙적인 증감률을 보이며, 특히 최근 10년간 하락세인 체육예산의 추세가 영향을 미친 것으로 해석할 수 있다. 결과적으로, 중앙정부의 체육예산 결정에 사회·경제적 요인이 정치·행정적 요인과 점증주의 요인보다 많은 영향을 주는 것으로 나타났으며, 본 연구는 다음과 같은 정책적 함의를 갖는다. 첫째, 국제경기대회 유치여부와 상관없이, 체육예산의 절대적인 총액과 함께 정부예산 대비 체육예산 비중을 확대해야한다. 둘째, 체육분야 일반회계 예산의 확충과 체육재정의 균형적인 구성이 필요하다. 셋째, 체육분야 일반회계 예산사업과 기금사업의 분류기준을 명확하게 수립해야 할 것이다.| As the level of the national economy increases and the social awareness in pursuit of the quality of life is also getting higher, it causes higher interests in sport and the administrative and financial demands as well. Therefore, the guaranteed sport budget which is directly related to the national sport competitiveness and the public health is very important. So this study was to identify the determinants which affect to the sport budget of the central government's general account budget, the main resources of Korean sport. And by reviewing details of how these determinant factors are related to the sport budget, it aims to provide the data for budgeting the long term financing decisions in the future. This study has analyzed the general account budget of the ministry which is responsible for sport in central government from 1970 to 2012 using trend analysis, correlation analysis, multiple regression analysis and autoregressive model analysis. The dependent variables are used as the total sport budget and the ratio of sport budget. And in the independent variables, the social/economical factors are GNI (Gross National Income) per capita, industrialization rate and unemployment rate. The political/ administrative factors are the year had election or not, the year had hosted international sport events or not and the cultural arts budget. The incremental budgeting factor is the previous year of the sport budget in central government. The results are as follows. Firstly, the total sport budget and the ratio of sport budget, both have shown the irregular pattern for 43 years in the trend analysis of the sport budget. The real value of the total sport budget in 2012 was 54.9 billion won which is lower than 69.8 billion won in 1983, and the ratio of sport budget in central government in 2012 was 0.03% which is lower than 0.06% in 1970. After the establishment of NSPF (National Sports Promotional Funds), the total budget and the ratio of the general account budget occupied in the public sport finance have continued to decrease that NSPF covers 725.1 billion won out of 875.9 billion won of the public sport fund in 2012 and its 83% of that. Secondly, industrialization rate, total cultural arts budget, previous year's total sport budget and the year had hosted international sport events in the order had positively affected to determine the total sport budget while GNI per capita had negatively affected. Thirdly, industrialization rate, previous year's ratio of sport budget, the ratio of cultural arts budget and the year had hosted international sport events in the order had positively affected to determine the ratio of sport budget while GNI per capita had negatively affected. Industrialization rate has measured the most influencing determinant in both total sport budget and ratio of sport budget and this can be analyzed that the sport played a major role as the leisure, was acknowledged as the high value-added industry and then affected to the sport budget while experiencing the rapid industrialization in Korea. In terms of accomplishment the same goal of ‘2% Culture Budget Plan’, this result represents that there’s mutually complementary relationship existing not the competitive budget allocation between the sport and the cultural arts budget. Also, the result of increasing the sport budget according to whether the international sport events is indicated that total and ratio of the sport budget are not expanded in the year of no international sport events. So sport budget has the high dependency on the international sport events. The result that the previous year's sport budget affects to present year's sport budget determination indicated that it's in line with the previous research of the welfare and culture. This can be analyzed that it's the result by the deeper effect to next year's sport budget as the direction of the government expenditure plan in the sport policy is set from the long term prospective according to whether the international sport event is or not with the long term of National Sports Development Plan. But the result on the sport budget with the higher GNI per capita was contrary to the previous research. While the past 43 years of the steadily increasing GNI per capita, the sport budget has shown irregular pattern and especially the sport budget decreasing in the recent 10 years seems to influence to that. As a result, the social/economic factors have the higher influence than the political/administrative factors and incremental budgeting factor in determining the sport budget in the central government. The political implications of this study are as follows. Firstly no matter of whether hosting international sport events or not, the absolute total sport budget and the ratio of the sport budget in central government should be expanded. Secondly, the expansion of the general account budget and the balanced public sport finance are necessary. Thirdly, the classification criteria of expenditures on the general account budget and National Sports Promotional Funds in the sport field must be set clearly.; As the level of the national economy increases and the social awareness in pursuit of the quality of life is also getting higher, it causes higher interests in sport and the administrative and financial demands as well. Therefore, the guaranteed sport budget which is directly related to the national sport competitiveness and the public health is very important. So this study was to identify the determinants which affect to the sport budget of the central government's general account budget, the main resources of Korean sport. And by reviewing details of how these determinant factors are related to the sport budget, it aims to provide the data for budgeting the long term financing decisions in the future. This study has analyzed the general account budget of the ministry which is responsible for sport in central government from 1970 to 2012 using trend analysis, correlation analysis, multiple regression analysis and autoregressive model analysis. The dependent variables are used as the total sport budget and the ratio of sport budget. And in the independent variables, the social/economical factors are GNI (Gross National Income) per capita, industrialization rate and unemployment rate. The political/ administrative factors are the year had election or not, the year had hosted international sport events or not and the cultural arts budget. The incremental budgeting factor is the previous year of the sport budget in central government. The results are as follows. Firstly, the total sport budget and the ratio of sport budget, both have shown the irregular pattern for 43 years in the trend analysis of the sport budget. The real value of the total sport budget in 2012 was 54.9 billion won which is lower than 69.8 billion won in 1983, and the ratio of sport budget in central government in 2012 was 0.03% which is lower than 0.06% in 1970. After the establishment of NSPF (National Sports Promotional Funds), the total budget and the ratio of the general account budget occupied in the public sport finance have continued to decrease that NSPF covers 725.1 billion won out of 875.9 billion won of the public sport fund in 2012 and its 83% of that. Secondly, industrialization rate, total cultural arts budget, previous year's total sport budget and the year had hosted international sport events in the order had positively affected to determine the total sport budget while GNI per capita had negatively affected. Thirdly, industrialization rate, previous year's ratio of sport budget, the ratio of cultural arts budget and the year had hosted international sport events in the order had positively affected to determine the ratio of sport budget while GNI per capita had negatively affected. Industrialization rate has measured the most influencing determinant in both total sport budget and ratio of sport budget and this can be analyzed that the sport played a major role as the leisure, was acknowledged as the high value-added industry and then affected to the sport budget while experiencing the rapid industrialization in Korea. In terms of accomplishment the same goal of ‘2% Culture Budget Plan’, this result represents that there’s mutually complementary relationship existing not the competitive budget allocation between the sport and the cultural arts budget. Also, the result of increasing the sport budget according to whether the international sport events is indicated that total and ratio of the sport budget are not expanded in the year of no international sport events. So sport budget has the high dependency on the international sport events. The result that the previous year's sport budget affects to present year's sport budget determination indicated that it's in line with the previous research of the welfare and culture. This can be analyzed that it's the result by the deeper effect to next year's sport budget as the direction of the government expenditure plan in the sport policy is set from the long term prospective according to whether the international sport event is or not with the long term of National Sports Development Plan. But the result on the sport budget with the higher GNI per capita was contrary to the previous research. While the past 43 years of the steadily increasing GNI per capita, the sport budget has shown irregular pattern and especially the sport budget decreasing in the recent 10 years seems to influence to that. As a result, the social/economic factors have the higher influence than the political/administrative factors and incremental budgeting factor in determining the sport budget in the central government. The political implications of this study are as follows. Firstly no matter of whether hosting international sport events or not, the absolute total sport budget and the ratio of the sport budget in central government should be expanded. Secondly, the expansion of the general account budget and the balanced public sport finance are necessary. Thirdly, the classification criteria of expenditures on the general account budget and National Sports Promotional Funds in the sport field must be set clearly.