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Life Cycle Sustainability Assessment Model of Buildings using Probabilistic Analysis Method

Title
Life Cycle Sustainability Assessment Model of Buildings using Probabilistic Analysis Method
Author
노승준
Alternative Author(s)
Roh, Seung Jun
Advisor(s)
태성호
Issue Date
2016-02
Publisher
한양대학교
Degree
Doctor
Abstract
Recently, to solve global environmental problems while simultaneously contributing to a balanced development of the human society, the necessity and justification of sustainable development are recognized as international agenda items, and the importance of sustainable development practice across all industries is being emphasized. Among diverse industries, the building sector is making multifaceted efforts to implement sustainable development by meeting its global target of reducing greenhouse gases emissions by more than 30%. Especially, the building sector has institutionalized the Green Building Certification System to encourage the introduction of sustainable buildings. The systemic assessment system based on the performance and design criteria of sustainable buildings by each sector enables the evaluation of the performance of buildings to contribute to curbing global environmental problems and to enhancing the quality of life for residents. However, the Green Building Certification System consists of more than 50 assessment criteria to determine the sustainability of buildings, it requires an excessive amount of time, money and human labor to evaluate all criteria in the early planning stage of building that is important in determining the overall sustainability of buildings and also has the greatest potential for improvement. As the evaluation scores are converted into grades after being added with relative scores and weighting factors due to various evaluation criteria, it is hard to quantify the sustainability of buildings. Hence, several studies are being conducted to find out methods to complement the limitations of the current Green Building Certification System by carefully selecting core evaluation items for a quantitative analysis, which can predict the sustainability of buildings in the early planning stage of building. In addition, these studies are detailed the necessary and contents of research to three axes including (1) evaluation dimensions, (2) evaluation range, (3) evaluation method for sustainability of buildings. (1) Evaluation dimensions: In order to conduct a comprehensive evaluation of buildings’ sustainability, a comprehensive method of evaluating the sustainability of buildings, including environmental, economic and social aspects, need to be developed through a series of systematic methodologies. (2) Evaluation range: It is necessary to evaluate the life cycle stage of buildings, include production, construction, operation, and end-of-life stage, and to develop these assessment model. (3) Evaluation method: It is necessary to develop a probabilistic evaluation model that can minimize decision-making risks in the early planning stage of building, can evaluate the sustainability of a building in a more objective way, and can quantify uncertainties. The objectives of this study is to propose the building life cycle environmental impact assessment method (BLAe), the building life cycle costing method (BLAc), and the building life cycle social impact assessment method (BLAs), all of which are applicable in the early planning stage of a building, and to utilize them to develop a deterministic life cycle sustainability assessment model for buildings (SBAD) and a probabilistic life cycle sustainability assessment model for buildings (SBAP), by utilizing the probability distributions of major building materials and the Monte Carlo Simulation as technical analysis tools. To achieve the objectives, this study has conducted 22 tasks. □ Objective 1 (Proposal of the BLAe): (1) Selection of major environmental impact categories
(2) Establishment of environmental impact coefficients
(3) Identification of major building materials
(4) Establishment of a building life cycle scenario
(5) Selection of LCIA method
(6) Proposal of the BLAe. □ Objective 2 (Proposal of the BLAc): (7) Selection of major cost categories
(8) Identification of major building materials
(9) Proposal of life cycle costing formulas
(10) Proposal of the BLAc. □ Objective 3 (Proposal of the BLAs): (11) Selection of major social topics
(12) Proposal of a life cycle social impact calculation formula
(13) Establishment of social impact coefficient of ready mixed concrete
(14) Proposal of the BLAs. □ Objective 4 (Development of the SBAD): (15) Proposal of a LCSA method for buildings
(16) Proposal of deterministic sustainable building index (SBID)
(17) Proposal of reference building
(18) Development of the SBAD. □ Objective 5 (Development of the SBAD): (19) Proposal of a LCSA method for buildings
(20) Proposal of probabilistic sustainable building index (SBIP)
(21) Development of the SBAP
(22) Feasibility analysis. The major results of this study can be summarized as following
1. This study proposed BLAe to evaluate building life cycle environmental impact systematically in the early planning stage of a building. 6 kinds of environmental impact categories as a building viewpoint were selected, and 6 kinds of major building material which account for more than 95% of these environmental impact categories were identified. A building life cycle scenario based on 6 major building materials, also, was established, and KOLID, the Korea end-point model, was selected as the LCIA method. 2. This study proposed BLAc to calculate building life cycle cost considering environmental external costs systematically in the early planning stage of a building. 10 kinds of major building material which account for more than 95% of direct construction cost were identified, a life cycle cost calculation that is composed of private costs and external costs of buildings, was proposed based on the present value method. 3. This study proposed BLAs to evaluate building life cycle social impact systematically in the early planning stage of a building. 11 kinds of social topics in the category of workers was selected as major social topics of buildings, and a calculation formula for life cycle social impact assessment of buildings, aiming at ready mixed concrete, was proposed. Social impact coefficient of ready mixed concrete, also, was established. 4. This study developed SBAD, the deterministic LCSA model of buildings, by integrating BLAe, BLAc, and BLAs. By combining advantages of LCSA concept of UNEP, which is the simple additive weighting method, and the relative efficiency index, the SBID which can be determined the final result of life cycle sustainability as a single index is proposed. 5. This study developed SBAP, the probabilistic LCSA model of buildings that utilizing the probability distributions of major building material and the MCS as a technical tool. Through an analysis of the BOQ of the 38 apartment buildings, the 30 kinds of probability distribution were established, and the SBIP which can be determined the final result of life cycle sustainability as a probabilistic single index is proposed. This study, also, analyzed the feasibility of selected major building materials and corresponding probability distributions, and, examined the significance and adequacy of SBAP through the comparison between SBAD and SBAP. In particular, the SBAP can provide decision makers with the values of expectation, minimum, and maximum of the sustainability of buildings unavailable from conventional deterministic assessment model to support effective decision making. Therefore, SBAP is expected to support stakeholders for the decision makings to improve the life cycle sustainability of respective buildings.
URI
https://repository.hanyang.ac.kr/handle/20.500.11754/127484http://hanyang.dcollection.net/common/orgView/200000428073
Appears in Collections:
GRADUATE SCHOOL[S](대학원) > ARCHITECTURAL ENGINEERING(건축시스템공학과) > Theses (Ph.D.)
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