A Study on the Determinants of Travel Mode Choice Using Multinomial Logistic Model- A Case Study of Sialkot, Pakistan

Abstract

The concept of walkable cities is increasing worldwide; however, in developing countries like Pakistan, there is less concern for this important issue. The research question for the study is what are the factors affecting the modal choice of residents in developing countries like Pakistan. In order to increase the competence of sidewalks and the safety level of pedestrian, this paper aims to investigate the contributing factors for selective preference for transport of inhabitants of Sialkot. Due to lesser facilities, people have changed their mode of choice and have become automobiles oriented which cause less interest towards walking. The intention of this study is to analyze the relation between the travel choice and the factors which affect the decision making of travel choice in Sialkot, Pakistan, based on an empirical approach. The survey was conducted for this research in Sialkot, Pakistan and around 8792 people were the respondents on 29 streets critical streets. Based on the data, multinomial logit (MNL) model was developed to identify what and how the factors affect the selective preference of residents of Sialkot. Then a comparative analysis was carried to determine the factors that restrain people who are willing to walk from walking. The results illustrates that p-values are less than 0.05, 0.01 and 0.001 which shows that the factors like type of pavement, pavement condition of sidewalk and sidewalk availability have strong significance on walking. Other models show that cost, convenience, pollution emission also have some significance on walking other than sidewalks availability, pavement condition and type of pavement. Also some personal characteristics are significant to modal choice in some models. It is concluded from the research that there is a group of people who are interested to walk but due to less facilities they could not walk. Therefore, by providing facilities like sidewalks we can encourage people for walking. The study suggests that the Government of Pakistan is engaged in developing infrastructure plan; it should also develop a framework to promote walkability rather than promoting walkable neighbourhood.

Key words: Walking; Travel Mode Choice; Sidewalk; Multinomial Logistic Regression; Sialkot, Pakistan.