한국 프로야구의 관중 수 결정요인

Abstract

한국 프로야구는 2015년에 730만 명의 관중을 달성하며 한국에서 가장 인기가 많은 스포츠가 되었다. 그러나 프로야구의 높은 인기에도 불구하고 그동안 프로야구 관중 수를 증대시킬 수 있는 요인으로 간주되는 전력 평준화와 결과의 불확실성에 대한 연구가 부족하였다. 대부분의 기존 연구는 연도별 자료를 활용하여 장기간의 불확실성을 측정하였지만, 한국 프로야구의 역사가 깊지 않아 심층적인 분석이 어려웠다. 본 논문에서는 2007년부터 2015년까지의 9년간의 일별 관중 자료와 승률 자료를 활용하여 전력 평준화와 결과의 불확실성을 중점적으로 한국 프로야구의 관중 수 결정요인을 패널 회귀분석모형으로 실증분석을 수행하였다. 개별 경기의 관중 수를 종속변수로 설정하였으며, 결과의 불확실성 변수로서 홈팀과 원정팀의 승률 차이, 홈팀과 원정팀의 게임차 플레이오프 불확실성을 설명변수에 포함시켰고, 구장간 거리, 평균 연봉 차이, 인구, 소득, 입장권 가격, 강수량, 평균 습도, 주중 공휴일 여부, 신생 구단 여부, 국제 스포츠 이벤트 진행 여부, 전년도 홈팀과 원정팀의 플레이오프 및 한국시리즈 진출 여부를 설명변수로 사용하였다. 실증분석 결과, 결과의 불확실성이 관중 수에 영향을 미치는 것을 확인할 수 있었다. 경기 결과의 불확실성을 나타내는 홈팀과 원정팀 승률 차이 변수를 통하여 승률 차이가 증가할수록 관중 수가 감소하는 것으로 나타났다. 또한 플레이오프 불확실성을 나타내는 홈팀과 원정팀의 게임차 변수를 통하여 게임차가 증가할수록 관중 수가 감소하는 것으로 나타났다. 따라서 한국 프로야구의 관중 수는 경기 결과의 불확실성과 플레이오프 불확실성 모두에 민감한 것으로 확인되었다.| Professional baseball has been the most popular professional sport in Korea, attracting more than seven million spectators in 2015. Despite its great popularity, there has been little research on competitive balance and uncertainty of outcome, which are considered the two key factors for drawing spectators. To this day, most studies used yearly data and hence they are limited to include long-term uncertainty of outcome only. Since Korean Professional Baseball League has a short history, use of yearly data severely hampered in-depth analysis on competitive balance and uncertainty of outcome. This thesis looks into the determinants of the number of spectators in the Korean Professional Baseball League, with special focus on competitive balance and uncertainty of outcome. It uses game-level daily data from 2007 to 2015, and estimates panel data regression models. Daily attendance data for each game is used as the dependent variable, while winning percentage difference between home and visiting teams, home team winning percentage, games back playoff uncertainty, population, income, ticket price, climate factor, and dummy variables for days of the week are included as the independent variables. The empirical results show that uncertainty of outcome affects daily attendance in Korean Professional Baseball League. They also show that winning percentage difference and games back have significant inverse relationship with daily attendance. This thesis confirms that Korean professional baseball fans are sensitive to both game uncertainty and playoff uncertainty.; Professional baseball has been the most popular professional sport in Korea, attracting more than seven million spectators in 2015. Despite its great popularity, there has been little research on competitive balance and uncertainty of outcome, which are considered the two key factors for drawing spectators. To this day, most studies used yearly data and hence they are limited to include long-term uncertainty of outcome only. Since Korean Professional Baseball League has a short history, use of yearly data severely hampered in-depth analysis on competitive balance and uncertainty of outcome. This thesis looks into the determinants of the number of spectators in the Korean Professional Baseball League, with special focus on competitive balance and uncertainty of outcome. It uses game-level daily data from 2007 to 2015, and estimates panel data regression models. Daily attendance data for each game is used as the dependent variable, while winning percentage difference between home and visiting teams, home team winning percentage, games back playoff uncertainty, population, income, ticket price, climate factor, and dummy variables for days of the week are included as the independent variables. The empirical results show that uncertainty of outcome affects daily attendance in Korean Professional Baseball League. They also show that winning percentage difference and games back have significant inverse relationship with daily attendance. This thesis confirms that Korean professional baseball fans are sensitive to both game uncertainty and playoff uncertainty.